Roster Math

Teams › CUSA · Compare Kennesaw State with another team

Kennesaw State

Kennesaw State returns 57% of last season's minutes and rates #168 on offense and #188 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -7.2 to +7.4.

+0.0
Rating · #167 of 365
+0.1
Offense · #168
+0.0
Defense · #188
-7.2 to +7.4
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
14-13
Projected record · 9 to 19 wins
10-8
Projected in CUSA · 6 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Kennesaw State's preseason projection of +0.0 (No. 167 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.9, more than the -0.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 131 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.6, about its neighbours' +0.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.7. It returns 57% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (62%). The projection leans most on Avery Thomas II (+3.0), Amir Taylor (+2.3) and Trey Simpson (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Avery Thomas II, a transfer from Louisiana Tech, at +3.0. Its 80% range, -7.2 to +7.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 46% · Transfer 39% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 10%

Avery Thomas II+3.0
Amir Taylor+2.3
Trey Simpson+0.1
Davin Cosby Jr.+0.0
Jaden Harris-0.1
Keriawn Berry-0.1
Chase Clemmons-0.1
Dozie Onyirimba-0.2
Brendan Tousignaut-0.2
Jamil Miller-0.2
Kris Parker-0.2
Nigel Thomas-0.2
Jacoby Hill-0.4
Anthony Enoh-1.0
Kaden Rickard-1.1
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
250Avery Thomas IIF6-81TransferLouisiana Tech26+4.6+3.0
347Amir TaylorF6-91ReturningKennesaw State20+4.6+2.3
1467Trey SimpsonF6-81ReturningKennesaw State23+0.2+0.1
1531Davin Cosby Jr.G6-53ReturningKennesaw State5+0.3+0.0
1847Jaden HarrisG6-43ReturningKennesaw State21-0.2-0.1
1974Keriawn BerryF6-50FreshmanHigh school10-0.5-0.1
2311Chase ClemmonsF6-12Other newcomer5-1.2-0.1
2446Dozie OnyirimbaF6-32ReturningKennesaw State5-1.3-0.2
2535Brendan TousignautF6-50Other newcomer5-1.4-0.2
2554Kris ParkerG6-92TransferUCF7-1.2-0.2
2609Jamil MillerF6-62Other newcomer5-1.5-0.2
2633Jacoby HillG6-41TransferJacksonville State25-0.7-0.4
2778Nigel ThomasF6-80Other newcomer6-1.6-0.2
4469Anthony EnohF6-73TransferGeorgia State18-2.2-1.0
4713Kaden RickardG6-61ReturningKennesaw State17-2.6-1.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Fri Nov 06vsAustin Peay #163+6.068%
Tue Nov 10vsWinthrop #177+6.670%
Tue Nov 17atAlabama #17-22.24%
Fri Nov 20vsSE Louisiana #286+10.179%
Tue Nov 24NEastern Michigan #244+2.658%
Mon Nov 30vsFlorida A&M #336+13.085%
Sat Dec 05atAustin Peay #163-6.530%
Wed Dec 09atGeorgia State #260-2.841%
Sat Dec 19atSouth Florida #83-12.616%
Thu Dec 31vsWestern Kentucky #160conf+2.558%
Sat Jan 02vsMiddle Tennessee #127conf+0.953%
Sat Jan 09vsJacksonville State #203conf+4.063%
Thu Jan 14atSam Houston #185conf-1.744%
Sat Jan 16atNew Mexico State #137conf-3.539%
Thu Jan 21vsDelaware #325conf+8.776%
Sat Jan 23vsLiberty #150conf+2.056%
Thu Jan 28atMissouri State #201conf-0.748%
Sat Jan 30atFlorida International #143conf-3.838%
Sat Feb 06atJacksonville State #203conf-0.548%
Thu Feb 11vsNew Mexico State #137conf+1.655%
Sat Feb 13vsSam Houston #185conf+3.561%
Thu Feb 18atLiberty #150conf-3.738%
Sat Feb 20atDelaware #325conf+5.166%
Thu Feb 25vsMissouri State #201conf+4.063%
Sat Feb 27vsFlorida International #143conf+1.956%
Thu Mar 04atMiddle Tennessee #127conf-4.835%
Sat Mar 06atWestern Kentucky #160conf-2.642%

Projected margin is from Kennesaw State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.