Roster Math

Teams › American · Compare Wichita State with another team

Wichita State

Wichita State returns 60% of last season's minutes and rates #69 on offense and #68 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +2.5 to +17.3.

+9.9
Rating · #62 of 365
+5.5
Offense · #69
+4.4
Defense · #68
+2.5 to +17.3
80% range
8%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
20-10
Projected record · 15 to 25 wins
12-6
Projected in American · 8 to 15 wins

Why we have them here

Wichita State's preseason projection of +9.9 (No. 62 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +7.3, more than the +6.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 69 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.5, about its neighbours' +1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.5. It returns 60% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (32%). The projection leans most on Will Berg (+4.4), Jahari Long (+3.3) and Dillon Battie (+2.5); the newcomer who matters most is Jahari Long, a transfer from George Mason, at +3.3. Its 80% range, +2.5 to +17.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 55% · Transfer 40% · Other newcomer 5%

Will Berg+4.4
Jahari Long+3.3
Dillon Battie+2.5
Jordan Frison+2.4
TJ Williams+1.6
Karon Boyd+0.6
Bryce Heard+0.4
Noah Hill+0.4
Pierre Couisnard-0.1
Joy Ighovodja-0.1
Tyrus Rathan-Mayes-0.1
Henry Thengvall-0.2
Jaret Valencia-0.3
Cyr Malonga-0.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
72Will BergC7-23ReturningWichita State23+7.6+4.4
229Jahari LongG6-56TransferGeorge Mason28+4.6+3.3
248Dillon BattieF6-82ReturningWichita State18+5.5+2.5
391Jordan FrisonG6-01TransferChattanooga27+3.6+2.4
571TJ WilliamsG6-51ReturningWichita State20+3.1+1.6
1106Noah HillF6-71ReturningWichita State9+1.6+0.4
1144Karon BoydF6-63ReturningWichita State27+0.8+0.6
1199Bryce HeardG6-62TransferDayton16+0.9+0.4
1938Pierre CouisnardF6-10Other newcomer3-0.7-0.1
2057Joy IghovodjaF6-43Other newcomer3-0.9-0.1
2100Tyrus Rathan-MayesF6-50Other newcomer4-1.0-0.1
2586Jaret ValenciaF6-83ReturningWichita State10-1.1-0.3
2886Henry ThengvallF6-63ReturningWichita State4-2.1-0.2
3951Cyr MalongaC6-113TransferNew Mexico State8-2.4-0.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Wed Nov 04vsCal State Northridge #227+15.389%
Sun Nov 08NUSC #35-3.240%
Sat Nov 14vsAustin Peay #163+12.584%
Wed Nov 18atLoyola Chicago #166+0.953%
Sat Nov 21vsNew Mexico #50+4.163%
Mon Nov 23vsTexas A&M-Corpus Christi #145+11.583%
Fri Nov 27atKentucky #22-12.915%
Mon Nov 30vsSoutheast Missouri State #219+14.288%
Sat Dec 05vsBoise State #87+7.473%
Fri Dec 11NKansas State #99+3.461%
Fri Dec 18vsSouth Carolina State #360+22.497%
Mon Dec 21vsJacksonville State #203+13.386%
Thu Dec 31vsNorth Texas #135conf+7.773%
Sun Jan 03atCharlotte #131conf+2.759%
Fri Jan 08vsUAB #158conf+9.277%
Thu Jan 14atMemphis #100conf+0.251%
Sun Jan 17vsEast Carolina #182conf+10.079%
Wed Jan 20atNorth Texas #135conf+3.260%
Sat Jan 23atTulsa #82conf-1.346%
Thu Jan 28vsMemphis #100conf+5.968%
Sun Jan 31vsUTSA #284conf+13.486%
Thu Feb 04atSouth Florida #83conf-1.545%
Sun Feb 07atFlorida Atlantic #122conf+1.756%
Wed Feb 10vsTulane #250conf+11.983%
Sun Feb 14atRice #262conf+7.874%
Thu Feb 18vsSouth Florida #83conf+4.163%
Sun Feb 21atTemple #149conf+3.963%
Sun Feb 28vsCharlotte #131conf+7.473%
Wed Mar 03atTulane #250conf+6.670%
Sat Mar 06vsTulsa #82conf+3.963%

Projected margin is from Wichita State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.