Roster Math

Teams › American · Compare Florida Atlantic with another team

Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic returns 36% of last season's minutes and rates #108 on offense and #190 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -4.4 to +10.2.

+2.8
Rating · #122 of 365
+2.9
Offense · #108
+0.0
Defense · #190
-4.4 to +10.2
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-13
Projected record · 10 to 21 wins
10-8
Projected in American · 6 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Florida Atlantic's preseason projection of +2.8 (No. 122 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.9, less than the +1.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 130 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.5, about its neighbours' +0.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.2. It returns 36% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (55%). The projection leans most on Jelani Hamilton (+3.4), Kanaan Carlyle (+2.1) and Braeden Speed (+1.2); the newcomer who matters most is Jelani Hamilton, a transfer from Georgia State, at +3.4. Its 80% range, -4.4 to +10.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 33% · Transfer 47% · Freshman 12% · Other newcomer 8%

Jelani Hamilton+3.4
Kanaan Carlyle+2.1
Braeden Speed+1.2
Felipe Quinones-0.1
Fawaz Ifaola-0.2
Zion Sampaio-0.2
Liam Dayco-Green-0.3
Lachlan Smith-0.3
Franck Belibi-0.4
Josh Harris-0.4
Vincent Neugebauer-0.4
Yohann Sissoko-0.5
Kieran Mullen-0.6
Milhan Charles-1.7
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
188Jelani HamiltonG6-52TransferGeorgia State27+5.0+3.4
476Kanaan CarlyleG6-33ReturningFlorida Atlantic28+3.1+2.1
828Braeden SpeedG6-32TransferLoyola Maryland27+1.7+1.2
1968Felipe QuinonesG6-40FreshmanHigh school12-0.4-0.1
2277Fawaz IfaolaC7-01TransferColorado11-0.7-0.2
2713Zion SampaioF6-60Other newcomer6-1.5-0.2
2760Liam Dayco-GreenG6-21ReturningFlorida Atlantic8-1.3-0.3
2947Franck BelibiG6-20FreshmanHigh school11-1.3-0.4
3114Lachlan SmithG6-31ReturningFlorida Atlantic7-1.8-0.3
3220Josh HarrisF6-82Other newcomer9-1.6-0.4
3261Vincent NeugebauerC7-11ReturningFlorida Atlantic10-1.6-0.4
3432Yohann SissokoG6-51ReturningFlorida Atlantic13-1.5-0.5
4369Kieran MullenC7-01TransferPittsburgh6-3.5-0.6
5021Milhan CharlesG6-71TransferArkansas-Pine Bluff23-3.0-1.7

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsLong Island University #210+9.979%
Fri Nov 06atWright State #165-3.738%
Wed Nov 11vsWilliam & Mary #168+9.076%
Wed Nov 18vsFlorida Gulf Coast #299+13.286%
Tue Nov 24vsMercer #231+11.081%
Sun Nov 29vsDavidson #132+6.670%
Wed Dec 02atFlorida International #143-5.035%
Sat Dec 05atSt. Bonaventure #126-5.334%
Sat Dec 12NVCU #44-7.328%
Fri Dec 18NLoyola Chicago #166+1.956%
Sun Dec 20NColorado State #67-4.436%
Thu Dec 31vsCharlotte #131conf+3.561%
Sun Jan 03atTulsa #82conf-6.430%
Wed Jan 06atNorth Texas #135conf-1.645%
Sun Jan 10vsMemphis #100conf+1.655%
Thu Jan 14atUAB #158conf-0.449%
Wed Jan 20vsTulsa #82conf-0.349%
Sat Jan 23vsRice #262conf+8.475%
Thu Jan 28atEast Carolina #182conf+0.451%
Sun Jan 31vsSouth Florida #83conf-0.349%
Thu Feb 04atUTSA #284conf+4.464%
Sun Feb 07vsWichita State #62conf-1.744%
Wed Feb 10vsTemple #149conf+4.464%
Sun Feb 14atTulane #250conf+1.856%
Wed Feb 17atCharlotte #131conf-2.044%
Sun Feb 21vsNorth Texas #135conf+3.762%
Sun Feb 28atRice #262conf+3.160%
Thu Mar 04atSouth Florida #83conf-6.929%
Sun Mar 07vsUAB #158conf+5.065%

Projected margin is from Florida Atlantic's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.