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James Madison
James Madison returns 42% of last season's minutes and rates #107 on offense and #250 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -6.1 to +8.2.
Why we have them here
James Madison's preseason projection of +1.2 (No. 147 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.3, about the +0.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 216 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.3, about its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.8. It returns 42% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (49%). The projection leans most on Cliff Davis (+1.5), Preston Fowler (+0.7) and Adrian Myers (+0.5); the newcomer who matters most is Adrian Myers, a transfer from San José State, at +0.5. Its 80% range, -6.1 to +8.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 38% · Transfer 55% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 4%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 639 | Cliff Davis | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | James Madison | 21 | +2.8 | +1.5 |
| 938 | Preston Fowler | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | James Madison | 15 | +1.9 | +0.7 |
| 1147 | Adrian Myers | F | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | San José State | 18 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
| 1154 | K.J. Windham | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Northwestern | 8 | +1.5 | +0.3 |
| 1178 | Daniel Johnson | G | 6-7 | 2 | Transfer | Hampton | 15 | +1.0 | +0.4 |
| 1290 | Garrett Sundra | F | 6-11 | 2 | Transfer | Notre Dame | 11 | +0.8 | +0.2 |
| 1326 | Brandon Lee | G | 6-4 | 1 | Transfer | Illinois | 4 | +1.2 | +0.1 |
| 1415 | Gage Lattimore | G | 6-2 | 1 | Transfer | North Carolina Central | 23 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| 1813 | Ashton Meeks | G | 5-10 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -0.3 | +0.0 |
| 1858 | Gabe Newhof | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | James Madison | 11 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 2312 | Chance Lundy | F | 6-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.5 | -0.1 | |
| 2312 | Josh Stephen | F | 6-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.5 | -0.1 | |
| 2385 | Oriekose Egbule | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.6 | -0.1 | |
| 2519 | Cavan Reilly | G | 6-4 | 4 | Transfer | Delaware | 9 | -1.1 | -0.2 |
| 2962 | Bradley Douglas | G | 6-1 | 3 | Returning | James Madison | 16 | -1.1 | -0.4 |
| 3705 | Marley Curtis | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | North Dakota | 8 | -2.2 | -0.4 |
| 3934 | Jacob Hogarth | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | Gardner-Webb | 14 | -1.9 | -0.6 |
| 4021 | Kose Egbule | G | 2 | Returning | James Madison | 8 | -2.6 | -0.5 | |
| 4234 | Paul Jones III | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | James Madison | 5 | -3.6 | -0.4 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Miami (OH) #96 | +2.4 | 58% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Kentucky #22 | -18.6 | 6% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | at |  Delaware #325 | +2.6 | 59% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  Mercyhurst #239 | +8.6 | 76% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  Towson #193 | -4.2 | 36% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  Charleston Southern #276 | +10.6 | 80% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | vs |  William & Mary #168 | +6.9 | 71% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | at |  Elon #198 | -3.0 | 40% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  Longwood #195 | +7.7 | 73% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | at |  North Carolina A&T #285 | -0.2 | 49% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Georgia State #260 | conf | +6.5 | 70% |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Southern Miss #214 | conf | -0.2 | 49% |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Coppin State #364 | +18.3 | 93% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Arkansas State #134 | conf | +2.1 | 57% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Troy #155 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  Louisiana Tech #269 | -1.1 | 47% | |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Louisiana #294 | conf | +2.9 | 59% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Georgia Southern #298 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Old Dominion #297 | conf | +8.0 | 74% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  Marshall #247 | conf | +6.0 | 69% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | Georgia State #260 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  UL Monroe #359 | conf | +13.4 | 86% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at |  Coastal Carolina #301 | conf | +3.6 | 62% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs |  App State #229 | conf | +5.1 | 66% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Marshall #247 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at | Old Dominion #297 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Coastal Carolina #301 | conf | +8.0 | 74% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs | Georgia Southern #298 | conf | +8.1 | 75% |
| Fri Feb 26 | at | App State #229 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
Projected margin is from James Madison's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.