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Bradley
Bradley returns 54% of last season's minutes and rates #242 on offense and #147 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -8.9 to +5.9.
Why we have them here
Bradley's preseason projection of -1.4 (No. 194 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -3.0, less than the -1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 129 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.5, about its neighbours' -0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.7. It returns 54% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (65%). The projection leans most on Corey Thomas (+1.3), Kai Yu (-0.2) and Gus Rugaard (-0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Jackson Seastrunk, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -8.9 to +5.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 43% · Transfer 25% · Other newcomer 11%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 707 | Corey Thomas | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Bradley | 22 | +2.4 | +1.3 |
| 2243 | Kai Yu | C | 7-0 | 2 | Returning | Bradley | 14 | -0.6 | -0.2 |
| 2586 | Trevon Payton | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 28 | -0.6 | -0.4 |
| 3108 | Jackson Seastrunk | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 11 | -1.4 | -0.4 | |
| 3247 | Gus Rugaard | G | 6-1 | 2 | Returning | Bradley | 9 | -1.7 | -0.4 |
| 3592 | Gustavo Guimares | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 11 | -1.8 | -0.5 | |
| 3609 | Handy Toussaint III | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Bradley | 9 | -2.0 | -0.4 |
| 3913 | Xander Alarie | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Northeastern | 22 | -1.4 | -0.8 |
| 4895 | Dietrich Richardson | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Bradley | 11 | -3.8 | -1.0 |
| 4926 | Timoty van der Knaap | G | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Bradley | 22 | -2.7 | -1.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  Pacific #175 | +5.5 | 67% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  Davidson #132 | -7.9 | 26% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | N |  Coppin State #364 | +11.2 | 82% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | N |  George Mason #107 | -3.7 | 38% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  Purdue Fort Wayne #212 | +6.9 | 71% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | at | Pacific #175 | -5.2 | 33% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  Chicago State #337 | +11.9 | 83% | |
| Fri Dec 04 | at |  North Texas #135 | -7.7 | 27% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Green Bay #281 | +8.9 | 77% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | vs |  Belmont #94 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Mon Dec 21 | at |  Northern Iowa #88 | conf | -8.0 | 26% |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Valparaiso #172 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Mon Jan 04 | vs |  Murray State #117 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Southern Illinois #206 | conf | -2.1 | 43% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Indiana State #116 | conf | -6.6 | 30% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Drake #104 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at |  UIC #120 | conf | -5.0 | 34% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  Evansville #317 | conf | +7.8 | 73% |
| Sun Jan 24 | vs |  Illinois State #108 | conf | -0.6 | 48% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at | Murray State #117 | conf | -5.7 | 33% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at | Evansville #317 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | UIC #120 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at | Belmont #94 | conf | -7.7 | 27% |
| Fri Feb 12 | at | Drake #104 | conf | -6.3 | 31% |
| Mon Feb 15 | vs | Northern Iowa #88 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Valparaiso #172 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Sun Feb 21 | vs | Southern Illinois #206 | conf | +3.7 | 62% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | Indiana State #116 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Illinois State #108 | conf | -7.1 | 28% |
Projected margin is from Bradley's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.