Roster Math

Teams › WCC · Compare Denver with another team

Denver

Denver returns 90% of last season's minutes and rates #87 on offense and #363 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.0 to +3.6.

-3.6
Rating · #240 of 365
+4.0
Offense · #87
-7.6
Defense · #363
-11.0 to +3.6
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
12-18
Projected record · 6 to 17 wins
7-9
Projected in WCC · 3 to 10 wins

Why we have them here

Denver's preseason projection of -3.6 (No. 240 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.7, more than the -2.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 257 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.3, about its neighbours' -0.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.8. It returns 90% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Zane Nelson (+3.2), Carson Johnson (+2.3) and Gabe Oldham (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Kaden Holdbrook, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.3. Its 80% range, -11.0 to +3.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 84% · Transfer 10% · Other newcomer 6%

Zane Nelson+3.2
Carson Johnson+2.3
Gabe Oldham+0.1
Loch Cunningham-0.2
Logan Kinsey-0.2
Devin Carney-0.2
Kaden Holdbrook-0.3
Trajan Thompson-0.3
Spencer Mahoney-0.3
Josh Lee-0.4
Didier Maleng-0.4
Corleone Dandridge-0.5
Babacar Mbengue-0.6
CJ Hyland-0.7
Shaun Wysocki-1.1
Jeremiah Burke-1.4
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
182Zane NelsonG6-41ReturningDenver24+5.4+3.2
471Carson JohnsonG6-11ReturningDenver30+3.0+2.3
1568Gabe OldhamF6-81ReturningDenver21+0.1+0.1
2093Logan KinseyF6-61ReturningDenver25-0.4-0.2
2828Loch CunninghamF6-52ReturningDenver4-2.0-0.2
3018Kaden HoldbrookF6-20Other newcomer6-1.8-0.3
3114Josh LeeG6-33ReturningDenver9-1.5-0.4
3283Trajan ThompsonF6-60Other newcomer6-2.1-0.3
3375Devin CarneyG6-13ReturningDenver3-3.0-0.2
3746Spencer MahoneyF6-82TransferTemple4-3.0-0.3
3861Didier MalengF6-91ReturningDenver7-2.5-0.4
4291CJ HylandG6-12TransferWestern Carolina10-2.6-0.7
4300Corleone DandridgeG6-51ReturningDenver5-3.7-0.5
4630Babacar MbengueF7-02TransferKansas City6-4.3-0.6
4717Shaun WysockiF6-71ReturningDenver15-2.8-1.1
4816Jeremiah BurkeF6-73ReturningDenver24-2.4-1.4

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atWisconsin #34-19.46%
Sat Nov 07atUC Riverside #252-5.533%
Sat Nov 14vsWyoming #121+0.251%
Sat Nov 21atEastern Michigan #244-4.934%
Mon Nov 23atKansas #10-25.32%
Sat Nov 28atNew Mexico State #137-8.923%
Tue Dec 01atAir Force #357+2.558%
Sat Dec 05atSIU Edwardsville #234-5.931%
Tue Dec 08atKansas City #338-1.645%
Wed Dec 09vsSam Houston #185+2.859%
Fri Dec 11atUTSA #284-3.340%
Mon Dec 14atUtah Tech #275-4.536%
Sat Dec 19vsRice #262+5.266%
Tue Dec 29atColorado #85-15.011%
Sat Jan 02atSan Francisco #189conf-3.938%
Wed Jan 06vsSaint Mary's #60conf-7.627%
Sat Jan 09vsSeattle U #111conf-3.539%
Wed Jan 13atPepperdine #249conf-1.745%
Sat Jan 16atSan Diego #263conf-1.246%
Wed Jan 20vsPortland #339conf+5.868%
Wed Jan 27atPacific #175conf-3.639%
Sat Jan 30atLoyola Marymount #170conf-5.134%
Wed Feb 03vsSan Francisco #189conf-0.249%
Sat Feb 06vsPepperdine #249conf+1.756%
Wed Feb 10atSanta Clara #63conf-12.416%
Sat Feb 13vsPacific #175conf-0.648%
Wed Feb 17atPortland #339conf+1.655%
Sat Feb 20atSeattle U #111conf-8.026%
Wed Feb 24vsLoyola Marymount #170conf-0.848%
Sat Feb 27vsSan Diego #263conf+2.357%

Projected margin is from Denver's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.