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App State
App State returns 72% of last season's minutes and rates #208 on offense and #249 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.2 to +4.5.
Why we have them here
App State's preseason projection of -2.9 (No. 229 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -3.2, less than the -2.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 151 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.2, more than its neighbours' -0.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.2. It returns 72% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (65%). The projection leans most on Jalen Tot (+0.6), Rrezon Elezaj (+0.1) and Andrin Njock (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is Rrezon Elezaj, a transfer from UConn, at +0.1. Its 80% range, -10.2 to +4.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 58% · Transfer 18% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 19%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1096 | Jalen Tot | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | App State | 24 | +1.0 | +0.6 |
| 1375 | Rrezon Elezaj | C | 7-1 | 1 | Transfer | UConn | 9 | +0.6 | +0.1 |
| 1645 | Andrin Njock | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | App State | 16 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2701 | Grant Clayton | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | App State | 14 | -1.0 | -0.3 |
| 2778 | KJ Vasser | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.3 | -0.3 | |
| 2849 | Jonathan Moss | G | 6-0 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | -1.2 | -0.3 |
| 3088 | Corbin Allen | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.5 | -0.3 | |
| 3088 | Tre McKinnon | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.5 | -0.3 | |
| 3280 | Ted Neal | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.6 | -0.4 | |
| 3459 | Cameron O'Kelley | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | App State | 12 | -1.6 | -0.5 |
| 3751 | Eren Banks | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | App State | 24 | -1.3 | -0.8 |
| 3803 | Luke Ledford | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | App State | 12 | -1.9 | -0.6 |
| 4792 | Hermann Koffi | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | Stonehill | 28 | -2.2 | -1.5 |
| 5110 | Chad Moodie | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | App State | 14 | -4.4 | -1.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | N |  Merrimack #176 | -1.5 | 45% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | at |  Auburn #16 | -21.1 | 4% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  Charlotte #131 | -8.2 | 25% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  North Texas #135 | +2.1 | 57% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | N |  St. Bonaventure #126 | -3.6 | 38% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Yale #95 | -5.7 | 32% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Akron #73 | -7.9 | 26% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | vs |  Dartmouth #290 | +7.8 | 74% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Kentucky #22 | -20.6 | 5% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | vs |  East Carolina #182 | +4.1 | 63% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Louisiana Tech #269 | -3.5 | 39% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | at |  Grambling #302 | -1.9 | 44% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Troy #155 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  South Alabama #228 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  Arkansas State #134 | conf | -6.2 | 31% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  UL Monroe #359 | conf | +5.3 | 67% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Old Dominion #297 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Georgia State #260 | conf | +3.6 | 62% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Coastal Carolina #301 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Georgia Southern #298 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs | Old Dominion #297 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Marshall #247 | conf | -2.1 | 43% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Southern Miss #214 | conf | +2.1 | 57% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at |  James Madison #147 | conf | -5.1 | 34% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Georgia Southern #298 | conf | +5.1 | 66% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | Marshall #247 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Georgia State #260 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at | Coastal Carolina #301 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Fri Feb 26 | vs | James Madison #147 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
Projected margin is from App State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.