Roster Math

Teams › Southland · Compare New Orleans with another team

New Orleans

New Orleans returns 71% of last season's minutes and rates #265 on offense and #319 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -14.2 to +0.5.

-6.8
Rating · #303 of 365
-2.9
Offense · #265
-3.9
Defense · #319
-14.2 to +0.5
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
11-19
Projected record · 6 to 16 wins
9-13
Projected in Southland · 4 to 14 wins

Why we have them here

New Orleans's preseason projection of -6.8 (No. 303 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.4, more than the -4.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 189 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.1, more than its neighbours' -1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -4.7. It returns 71% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (70%). The projection leans most on Nick Jones (+1.6), Enzo Boudouma (+0.4) and TJ Cope (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Nick Jones, a transfer from Wagner, at +1.6. Its 80% range, -14.2 to +0.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 66% · Transfer 14% · Other newcomer 5%

Nick Jones+1.6
Enzo Boudouma+0.4
TJ Cope+0.1
Mathok Majok-0.4
Eze Nwakamma-0.5
Irish Coquia-0.6
Vieux Sanneh-0.6
William Patterson-0.6
Panagiotis Pagonis-0.7
Jamal Chretien II-1.0
Kedrick Osby-1.1
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
658Nick JonesG6-21TransferWagner28+2.4+1.6
1218Enzo BoudoumaF6-91ReturningNew Orleans20+0.8+0.4
1489TJ CopeG6-71ReturningNew Orleans23+0.2+0.1
3398Mathok MajokC7-43ReturningNew Orleans10-1.7-0.4
3637Eze NwakammaF6-80Other newcomer10-1.9-0.5
3684Panagiotis PagonisF6-91ReturningNew Orleans20-1.4-0.7
3737Irish CoquiaG6-21ReturningNew Orleans13-1.7-0.6
4071Vieux SannehF6-51ReturningNew Orleans10-2.4-0.6
4351William PattersonC7-21ReturningNew Orleans8-3.1-0.6
4653Kedrick OsbyF6-71ReturningNew Orleans18-2.5-1.1
4803Jamal Chretien IIG6-61ReturningNew Orleans11-3.5-1.0

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Tue Nov 03atLSU #39-20.55%
Wed Nov 18atTexas Tech #15-25.52%
Sat Nov 21atTexas Southern #331-4.835%
Wed Nov 25vsGrambling #302+4.665%
Sun Nov 29vsFlorida Gulf Coast #299+4.664%
Tue Dec 01atArizona #3-30.5<1%
Sat Dec 05vsUT Rio Grande Valley #191conf-2.542%
Mon Dec 07vsTexas A&M-Corpus Christi #145conf-4.137%
Sun Dec 13atGrambling #302-4.835%
Sat Dec 19atHouston Christian #273conf-3.040%
Mon Dec 21atIncarnate Word #308conf-1.844%
Tue Dec 29atKansas #10-28.41%
Sat Jan 02atNorthwestern State #277conf-3.838%
Mon Jan 04atEast Texas A&M #319conf-1.445%
Sat Jan 09vsNicholls #267conf+0.150%
Mon Jan 11vsSE Louisiana #286conf+0.853%
Sat Jan 16atStephen F. Austin #161conf-6.929%
Mon Jan 18atLamar #238conf-4.835%
Sat Jan 23vsEast Texas A&M #319conf+2.658%
Tue Jan 26vsNorthwestern State #277conf+0.451%
Sat Jan 30atNicholls #267conf-3.040%
Mon Feb 01vsMcNeese #80conf-8.924%
Sat Feb 06atUT Rio Grande Valley #191conf-5.932%
Mon Feb 08atTexas A&M-Corpus Christi #145conf-9.123%
Sat Feb 13vsHouston Christian #273conf+0.351%
Mon Feb 15vsIncarnate Word #308conf+1.856%
Sat Feb 20vsLamar #238conf-0.847%
Mon Feb 22vsStephen F. Austin #161conf-3.539%
Sat Feb 27atSE Louisiana #286conf-2.642%
Mon Mar 01atMcNeese #80conf-13.714%

Projected margin is from New Orleans's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.