Roster Math

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North Alabama

North Alabama returns 64% of last season's minutes and rates #329 on offense and #307 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -16.7 to -1.9.

-9.2
Rating · #332 of 365
-5.7
Offense · #329
-3.6
Defense · #307
-16.7 to -1.9
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
10-18
Projected record · 5 to 15 wins
6-10
Projected in UAC · 3 to 10 wins

Why we have them here

North Alabama's preseason projection of -9.2 (No. 332 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -6.2, about the -5.5 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 347 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.7, about its neighbours' -2.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.7. It returns 64% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (74%). The projection leans most on Donte Bacchus (+0.6), Damarien Yates (+0.2) and Jacobe Whitted (-0.5); the newcomer who matters most is Damarien Yates, a transfer from Alabama State, at +0.2. Its 80% range, -16.7 to -1.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 52% · Transfer 36% · Other newcomer 12%

Donte Bacchus+0.6
Damarien Yates+0.2
Jacobe Whitted-0.5
King Walker-0.7
Tank Washington-0.9
Mitchell Chaffee-0.9
Kedar Bodie-1.0
Israel Jenrette-1.0
DarKaun King-1.0
Jamal Albritton-1.0
Mike Evbagharu-1.2
Cortez Graham-Howard-1.2
Julius Clark-1.2
Braylon Patton-2.0
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
1159Donte BacchusF6-72ReturningNorth Alabama27+0.8+0.6
1381Damarien YatesG6-72TransferAlabama State17+0.4+0.2
3217Jacobe WhittedG6-71TransferTennessee Tech16-1.2-0.5
4509Mike EvbagharuG6-43TransferCanisius25-1.9-1.2
4706DarKaun KingF6-72ReturningNorth Alabama15-2.8-1.0
4723Mitchell ChaffeeF6-102Other newcomer12-3.1-0.9
4763King WalkerG6-61ReturningNorth Alabama7-4.3-0.7
4784Israel JenretteF7-12Other newcomer12-3.3-1.0
4797Tank WashingtonF6-71ReturningNorth Alabama10-3.7-0.9
4909Kedar BodieG6-31ReturningNorth Alabama10-4.1-1.0
4982Jamal AlbrittonC6-93ReturningNorth Alabama9-4.5-1.0
4986Cortez Graham-HowardG6-51ReturningNorth Alabama13-3.8-1.2
5010Julius ClarkG6-71TransferGardner-Webb13-4.0-1.2
5207Braylon PattonG6-01ReturningNorth Alabama14-5.6-2.0

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atUC Davis #255-8.125%
Mon Nov 09atOklahoma #30-22.63%
Fri Nov 13atMiami #18-24.72%
Tue Nov 24vsAlabama A&M #343+5.969%
Tue Dec 01atDePaul #97-15.310%
Sun Dec 06atCharlotte #131-12.415%
Wed Dec 09vsUT Martin #271+2.759%
Tue Dec 15atMorehead State #265-8.425%
Sat Dec 19vsQueens University #142-1.645%
Mon Dec 21vsWest Florida #304+4.063%
Thu Dec 31atBellarmine #305-6.729%
Sat Jan 02atLipscomb #118-14.312%
Wed Jan 06atWest Georgia #295conf-3.638%
Sat Jan 09vsAustin Peay #163conf-3.938%
Sat Jan 16atEastern Kentucky #264conf-5.433%
Wed Jan 20vsAbilene Christian #192conf-2.641%
Sat Jan 23vsUT Arlington #211conf-2.243%
Wed Jan 27atCentral Arkansas #181conf-8.624%
Sat Jan 30atLittle Rock #320conf-2.542%
Wed Feb 03vsWest Georgia #295conf+0.853%
Sat Feb 06vsEastern Kentucky #264conf-0.548%
Wed Feb 10atTarleton State #257conf-6.331%
Sat Feb 13vsLittle Rock #320conf+2.056%
Wed Feb 17atAbilene Christian #192conf-7.527%
Sat Feb 20atUT Arlington #211conf-7.028%
Wed Feb 24vsCentral Arkansas #181conf-3.240%
Sat Feb 27atAustin Peay #163conf-9.322%
Sat Mar 06vsTarleton State #257conf-0.847%

Projected margin is from North Alabama's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.