Roster Math

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West Georgia

West Georgia returns 96% of last season's minutes and rates #312 on offense and #258 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -13.9 to +0.8.

-6.6
Rating · #295 of 365
-4.6
Offense · #312
-2.0
Defense · #258
-13.9 to +0.8
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
11-18
Projected record · 6 to 16 wins
7-9
Projected in UAC · 3 to 11 wins

Why we have them here

West Georgia's preseason projection of -6.6 (No. 295 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.7, more than the -3.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 303 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.7, about its neighbours' -1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.5. It returns 96% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Shelton Williams-Dryden (+2.8), JaVar Daniel (+1.1) and Kenneth Chime (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Amir Williams, a transfer from Hofstra, at -0.1. Its 80% range, -13.9 to +0.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 87% · Transfer 4% · Other newcomer 9%

Shelton Williams-Dryden+2.8
JaVar Daniel+1.1
Kenneth Chime+0.1
Amir Williams-0.1
Eric Baldassarre-0.4
Max Young-0.4
Cameron Merritt-0.5
Nate Jones-0.5
Micah Smith-0.6
Maddox Fowles-0.6
Chas Lewless-0.6
Brady Hardewig-0.9
Xavier Shegog-1.1
Matija Žužic-1.1
Kolten Griffin-2.7
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
327Shelton Williams-DrydenF6-62ReturningWest Georgia29+3.9+2.8
788JaVar DanielF6-103ReturningWest Georgia20+2.2+1.1
1482Kenneth ChimeF6-91ReturningWest Georgia19+0.2+0.1
2002Amir WilliamsG6-41TransferHofstra8-0.5-0.1
3327Chas LewlessG6-22ReturningWest Georgia20-1.1-0.6
3422Eric BaldassarreG6-41ReturningWest Georgia7-2.0-0.4
3964Max YoungG6-31ReturningWest Georgia6-2.9-0.4
4048Cameron MerrittG5-112ReturningWest Georgia6-2.9-0.5
4093Micah SmithF6-72Other newcomer9-2.5-0.6
4093Maddox FowlesF6-70Other newcomer9-2.5-0.6
4241Nate JonesG6-23ReturningWest Georgia5-3.5-0.5
4522Brady HardewigG6-22ReturningWest Georgia15-2.5-0.9
4858Matija ŽužicG6-62ReturningWest Georgia13-3.4-1.1
5024Xavier ShegogF6-61ReturningWest Georgia9-4.8-1.1
5223Kolten GriffinF6-62ReturningWest Georgia24-4.7-2.7

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atDePaul #97-14.312%
Thu Nov 05atLoyola Chicago #166-10.420%
Wed Nov 11vsUNC Asheville #245+2.959%
Sat Nov 14atCharleston Southern #276-6.730%
Tue Nov 24atTennessee Tech #280-6.032%
Sun Nov 29atSouth Carolina Upstate #268-6.530%
Tue Dec 01vsSouthern Indiana #315+6.069%
Sat Dec 12atVanderbilt #26-22.83%
Wed Dec 16atGeorgia #32-23.23%
Sat Dec 19vsWest Florida #304+5.367%
Mon Dec 21vsQueens University #142-0.648%
Thu Dec 31atLipscomb #118-13.115%
Sat Jan 02atBellarmine #305-5.333%
Wed Jan 06vsNorth Alabama #332conf+3.662%
Sat Jan 09atEastern Kentucky #264conf-3.838%
Wed Jan 13atLittle Rock #320conf-0.748%
Sat Jan 16atCentral Arkansas #181conf-7.228%
Wed Jan 20vsUT Arlington #211conf-1.346%
Sat Jan 23vsAbilene Christian #192conf-1.744%
Wed Jan 27atTarleton State #257conf-4.735%
Sat Jan 30vsEastern Kentucky #264conf+0.652%
Wed Feb 03atNorth Alabama #332conf-0.847%
Wed Feb 10vsLittle Rock #320conf+3.260%
Sat Feb 13vsAustin Peay #163conf-3.041%
Wed Feb 17atUT Arlington #211conf-5.633%
Sat Feb 20atAbilene Christian #192conf-6.131%
Wed Feb 24atAustin Peay #163conf-7.926%
Sat Feb 27vsCentral Arkansas #181conf-2.343%
Wed Mar 03vsTarleton State #257conf+0.351%

Projected margin is from West Georgia's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.