Teams › Summit · Compare North Dakota with another team
North Dakota
North Dakota returns 58% of last season's minutes and rates #250 on offense and #340 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -14.7 to -0.4.
Why we have them here
North Dakota's preseason projection of -7.6 (No. 310 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -3.5, more than the -4.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 287 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.3, about its neighbours' -1.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -3.1. It returns 58% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (71%). The projection leans most on Greyson Uelmen (+1.4), Zach Kraft (-0.1) and Reggie Thomas (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Tyler Wagner, a transfer from Austin Peay, at -0.1. Its 80% range, -14.7 to -0.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 58% · Transfer 3% · Other newcomer 39%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 679 | Greyson Uelmen | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | North Dakota | 21 | +2.6 | +1.4 |
| 1763 | Zach Kraft | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | North Dakota | 19 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 1840 | Reggie Thomas | G | 6-1 | 2 | Returning | North Dakota | 11 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 1918 | Tyler Wagner | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | Austin Peay | 6 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| 2420 | George Natsvlishvili | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | North Dakota | 13 | -0.8 | -0.3 |
| 3277 | Garrett Anderson | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | North Dakota | 20 | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| 3287 | Mataeya Mathern | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3287 | Paris Bass | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3287 | Miranda VanderWal | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3287 | Jocelyn Schiller | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3287 | Nevaeh Ferrara Horne | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3287 | Rakiyah Beal | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3287 | Walker Demers | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3287 | Mikayla Aumer | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3287 | Kiera Pemberton | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3287 | Jayla Owen | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3287 | Kiyah Hurst | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3287 | Sydney Piekny | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3287 | Skyler Volmer | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3383 | Fatima Ibrahim | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3452 | Anaiyah Fletcher | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||
| 3643 | Matthew Bothun | F | 6-9 | 2 | Returning | North Dakota | 4 | -3.0 | -0.3 |
| 3905 | Ryan Erikson | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | North Dakota | 4 | -3.6 | -0.3 |
| 3960 | Anthony Doppler | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | North Dakota | 4 | -3.6 | -0.3 |
| 4260 | Wylee Delorme | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | North Dakota | 5 | -3.7 | -0.5 |
| 4466 | Karson Ouse | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | North Dakota | 4 | -4.8 | -0.4 |
| 4657 | Josh Jones | C | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | North Dakota | 11 | -3.2 | -0.9 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Minnesota #65 | -17.5 | 7% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  Winthrop #177 | -10.6 | 20% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | at |  Clemson #46 | -19.3 | 6% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  Montana #222 | +2.1 | 57% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | vs |  SIU Edwardsville #234 | +2.6 | 58% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Detroit Mercy #312 | +0.1 | 50% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | at |  Green Bay #281 | -6.6 | 29% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  UTEP #237 | -7.7 | 26% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | at | SIU Edwardsville #234 | -8.7 | 24% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Cal State Northridge #227 | -9.3 | 23% | |
| Thu Dec 17 | vs | Green Bay #281 | +4.0 | 63% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | at |  Montana State #138 | -12.1 | 16% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Colorado #85 | -17.9 | 7% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  UNLV #139 | -12.5 | 16% | |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  Omaha #274 | conf | -3.7 | 38% |
| Sun Jan 10 | at |  St. Thomas-Minnesota #130 | conf | -9.6 | 22% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Oral Roberts #323 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Kansas City #338 | conf | +3.9 | 63% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at |  South Dakota #322 | conf | -2.5 | 42% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  South Dakota State #213 | conf | -6.1 | 31% |
| Fri Jan 29 | vs |  North Dakota State #225 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | St. Thomas-Minnesota #130 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Omaha #274 | conf | +0.8 | 52% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | Kansas City #338 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Oral Roberts #323 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | South Dakota State #213 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | South Dakota #322 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | North Dakota State #225 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
Projected margin is from North Dakota's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.