Teams › Big Sky · Compare Montana with another team
Montana
Montana returns 80% of last season's minutes and rates #210 on offense and #234 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.7 to +4.7.
Why we have them here
Montana's preseason projection of -2.5 (No. 222 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.8, about the -1.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 215 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.5, about its neighbours' -0.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.5. It returns 80% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (69%). The projection leans most on Tyler Thompson (+1.0), Kenyon Aguino (+1.0) and Tyler Isaak (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Luke Moxon, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -9.7 to +4.7, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 75% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 15%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 902 | Kenyon Aguino | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Montana | 23 | +1.7 | +1.0 |
| 906 | Tyler Thompson | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Montana | 26 | +1.6 | +1.0 |
| 1572 | Tyler Isaak | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Montana | 23 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| 1711 | Courtney Anderson Jr. | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Montana | 14 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 2423 | Grant Kepley | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Montana | 20 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| 3410 | Jemai Lake | G | 6-2 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 11 | -1.6 | -0.4 |
| 3432 | Luke Moxon | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.7 | -0.4 | |
| 3471 | Noah Bendinger | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.8 | -0.4 | |
| 3496 | Jordan Clark | F | 1 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.8 | -0.4 | ||
| 4109 | Trae Taylor | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Montana | 12 | -2.2 | -0.6 |
| 4131 | Amari Jedkins | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Montana | 9 | -2.5 | -0.6 |
| 4401 | Chase Henderson | G | 6-0 | 3 | Returning | Montana | 10 | -2.8 | -0.7 |
| 4815 | Connor Dick | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Montana | 12 | -3.4 | -1.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Oregon #58 | -14.8 | 11% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  San Francisco #189 | -6.3 | 30% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  North Dakota #310 | -2.1 | 43% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | at |  Kansas State #99 | -11.8 | 17% | |
| Mon Nov 30 | at |  Arizona State #52 | -16.5 | 9% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | at |  Northern Arizona #307 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Utah State #29 | -19.2 | 6% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  South Dakota #322 | +10.3 | 80% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Cal Poly #223 | -5.7 | 33% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | vs |  Pepperdine #249 | +6.7 | 71% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Northern Colorado #128 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Portland State #186 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  Weber State #233 | conf | -2.8 | 41% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Idaho State #261 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Idaho #251 | conf | +3.6 | 61% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Eastern Washington #146 | conf | +0.0 | 50% |
| Mon Jan 18 | at |  Utah Tech #275 | conf | -0.6 | 48% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Montana State #138 | conf | -5.6 | 32% |
| Mon Jan 25 | vs |  Southern Utah #292 | conf | +5.4 | 67% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Northern Arizona #307 | conf | +5.6 | 67% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at | Portland State #186 | conf | -4.3 | 36% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Northern Colorado #128 | conf | -5.3 | 33% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | Eastern Washington #146 | conf | -5.7 | 32% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Idaho #251 | conf | -1.1 | 46% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | Idaho State #261 | conf | +3.9 | 62% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Weber State #233 | conf | +3.3 | 60% |
| Mon Feb 22 | vs | Utah Tech #275 | conf | +4.5 | 64% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Montana State #138 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Mon Mar 01 | at | Southern Utah #292 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
Projected margin is from Montana's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.