Teams › NEC · Compare Chicago State with another team
Chicago State
Chicago State returns 100% of last season's minutes and rates #328 on offense and #321 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -16.9 to -2.1.
Why we have them here
Chicago State's preseason projection of -9.6 (No. 337 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -4.2, more than the -5.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 342 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.4, about its neighbours' -2.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -3.2. It returns 100% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (74%). The projection leans most on Doyel Cockrill III (+3.3), CJ Ray (+0.9) and Dakari Thomas (-0.8); the newcomer who matters most is Greg Spate, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.9. Its 80% range, -16.9 to -2.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 94% · Other newcomer 6%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 193 | Doyel Cockrill III | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Chicago State | 26 | +5.2 | +3.3 |
| 967 | CJ Ray | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Chicago State | 28 | +1.4 | +0.9 |
| 4131 | Stephen Byard | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | Chicago State | 22 | -1.6 | -0.9 |
| 4578 | Greg Spate | F | 6-7 | 3 | Other newcomer | 12 | -2.8 | -0.9 | |
| 4678 | Dailliss Cox | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Chicago State | 17 | -2.6 | -1.1 |
| 4722 | Dakari Thomas | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | Chicago State | 9 | -3.6 | -0.8 |
| 4862 | Chauncey Gibson | G | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Chicago State | 15 | -3.1 | -1.2 |
| 4947 | Malek Robinson | G | 5-11 | 1 | Returning | Chicago State | 18 | -3.1 | -1.4 |
| 4989 | Joseph Owens | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Chicago State | 13 | -3.8 | -1.3 |
| 4991 | Daniel Zatsepin | F | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Chicago State | 11 | -4.1 | -1.2 |
| 5072 | Lionel Larvadain III | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Chicago State | 12 | -4.4 | -1.4 |
| 5231 | Corey Sands | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Chicago State | 16 | -6.0 | -2.4 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Texas #20 | -25.3 | 2% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | at |  Incarnate Word #308 | -6.4 | 30% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  South Carolina State #360 | +8.6 | 76% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | at |  California Baptist #157 | -12.0 | 16% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  San Diego #263 | -8.4 | 25% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | at |  Loyola Marymount #170 | -12.1 | 16% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  UIC #120 | -13.3 | 14% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | at |  Marquette #47 | -22.2 | 4% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | at |  Bradley #194 | -11.9 | 17% | |
| Mon Nov 30 | at |  Evansville #317 | -7.2 | 28% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Murray State #117 | -14.4 | 12% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Illinois State #108 | -3.8 | 38% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Valparaiso #172 | -11.5 | 17% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  South Dakota #322 | -7.0 | 29% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Missouri #43 | -20.9 | 4% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Northwestern #79 | -17.6 | 7% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Central Connecticut #316 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Fri Jan 08 | at |  Fairleigh Dickinson #334 | conf | -2.7 | 41% |
| Sun Jan 10 | at |  Wagner #291 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Long Island University #210 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  New Haven #326 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs | Wagner #291 | conf | +0.0 | 50% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Stonehill #354 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at |  Le Moyne #217 | conf | -7.8 | 26% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Mercyhurst #239 | conf | -7.0 | 28% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Fairleigh Dickinson #334 | conf | +2.0 | 57% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | Long Island University #210 | conf | -7.9 | 26% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | New Haven #326 | conf | -2.1 | 43% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | Mercyhurst #239 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Le Moyne #217 | conf | -2.7 | 41% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | Central Connecticut #316 | conf | -2.6 | 42% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Stonehill #354 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
Projected margin is from Chicago State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.