Teams › Big Sky · Compare Montana State with another team
Montana State
Montana State returns 86% of last season's minutes and rates #115 on offense and #220 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -5.7 to +9.0.
Why we have them here
Montana State's preseason projection of +1.6 (No. 138 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +2.0, more than the +1.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 109 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.8, more than its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.6. It returns 86% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (50%). The projection leans most on Davian Brown (+3.0), Jeremiah Davis (+1.5) and Christian King (+0.7); the newcomer who matters most is London Praytor, a transfer from Toledo, at -0.1. Its 80% range, -5.7 to +9.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 81% · Transfer 7% · Other newcomer 12%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 237 | Davian Brown | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Montana State | 24 | +4.9 | +3.0 |
| 685 | Jeremiah Davis | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Montana State | 26 | +2.3 | +1.5 |
| 1075 | Christian King | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Montana State | 24 | +1.1 | +0.7 |
| 1170 | Jaden Steppe | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Montana State | 19 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
| 1254 | Seth Amunrud | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Montana State | 20 | +0.7 | +0.3 |
| 1881 | Waka Mbatch | F | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | Montana State | 12 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 1888 | London Praytor | F | 7-0 | 1 | Transfer | Toledo | 7 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 1920 | Howie Keene | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Montana State | 13 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 2026 | Cavin Holden | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Montana State | 19 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| 2204 | DJ Johnson | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2357 | CJ Purdie | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.2 | -0.1 | |
| 2408 | Hale Hansen | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.3 | -0.2 | |
| 2423 | Isaiah Crane | G | 6-1 | 3 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.3 | -0.2 | |
| 2630 | James Steward | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.5 | -0.2 | |
| 2913 | Calum Rutherfurd | F | 6-11 | 2 | Returning | Montana State | 5 | -1.9 | -0.2 |
| 4095 | Darnez Slater | G | 6-3 | 1 | Transfer | Colorado State | 7 | -2.9 | -0.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Colorado State #67 | -10.7 | 19% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  Long Beach State #278 | +10.7 | 81% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | at |  BYU #23 | -19.5 | 6% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  Cal Poly #223 | +9.4 | 77% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | at |  Gonzaga #14 | -19.2 | 6% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | at |  High Point #40 | -14.8 | 11% | |
| Mon Nov 30 | at |  South Dakota #322 | +0.8 | 53% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Northern Arizona #307 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Fri Dec 11 | at |  San Diego State #81 | -10.5 | 20% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | vs |  North Dakota #310 | +12.1 | 84% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Portland State #186 | conf | +4.5 | 64% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Northern Colorado #128 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  Idaho State #261 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Weber State #233 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Eastern Washington #146 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Idaho #251 | conf | +6.5 | 70% |
| Mon Jan 18 | at |  Southern Utah #292 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Montana #222 | conf | +5.6 | 68% |
| Mon Jan 25 | vs |  Utah Tech #275 | conf | +7.5 | 73% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs | Northern Arizona #307 | conf | +8.3 | 75% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at | Northern Colorado #128 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Portland State #186 | conf | -1.4 | 45% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | Idaho #251 | conf | +1.7 | 56% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Eastern Washington #146 | conf | -2.7 | 41% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | Weber State #233 | conf | +6.3 | 70% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Idaho State #261 | conf | +6.7 | 71% |
| Mon Feb 22 | vs | Southern Utah #292 | conf | +8.4 | 75% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Montana #222 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Mon Mar 01 | at | Utah Tech #275 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
Projected margin is from Montana State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.