Roster Math

Teams › Summit · Compare Omaha with another team

Omaha

Omaha returns 80% of last season's minutes and rates #252 on offense and #280 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -12.4 to +2.2.

-5.1
Rating · #274 of 365
-2.5
Offense · #252
-2.6
Defense · #280
-12.4 to +2.2
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
11-15
Projected record · 6 to 16 wins
7-7
Projected in Summit · 4 to 10 wins

Why we have them here

Omaha's preseason projection of -5.1 (No. 274 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.9, about the -2.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 294 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.3, about its neighbours' -1.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.2. It returns 80% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (65%). The projection leans most on Paul Djobet (+1.8), Grant Stubblefield (+0.5) and Justin Bolis (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is Justin Bolis, a transfer from Nebraska, at +0.0. Its 80% range, -12.4 to +2.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 65% · Transfer 7% · Freshman 9% · Other newcomer 19%

Paul Djobet+1.8
Grant Stubblefield+0.5
Justin Bolis+0.0
Rob Matos-0.3
Marcus Gillespie-0.3
Cahmai Crosby-0.3
Jonny Jordan-0.4
Valentino Simon-0.4
Brandon Orgilbold-0.4
Deng Mayar-0.5
Isaac Ondekane-0.5
Benji Nelson-0.5
Christian Richardson-0.5
Aidan Skradis-0.7
Brock Scholl-0.9
Kamryn Thomas-1.1
Khamani Cooper-1.3
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
546Paul DjobetG6-73ReturningOmaha26+2.9+1.8
1161Grant StubblefieldG6-13ReturningOmaha26+0.8+0.5
1672Justin BolisF6-81TransferNebraska5+0.0+0.0
2713Marcus GillespieG6-40FreshmanHigh school10-1.2-0.3
2733Cahmai CrosbyG6-31TransferNorth Texas10-1.2-0.3
2822Valentino SimonF6-61ReturningOmaha15-1.0-0.4
3053Rob MatosF5-93Other newcomer7-1.8-0.3
3510Jonny JordanG6-30FreshmanHigh school7-2.1-0.4
3574Christian RichardsonC7-12ReturningOmaha14-1.5-0.5
3628Brandon OrgilboldG6-00Other newcomer7-2.2-0.4
3856Deng MayarF6-73Other newcomer8-2.4-0.5
3928Isaac OndekaneF6-83Other newcomer8-2.4-0.5
3928Benji NelsonF6-80Other newcomer8-2.4-0.5
4578Brock SchollF6-81ReturningOmaha13-2.7-0.9
4680Aidan SkradisG6-41ReturningOmaha6-4.3-0.7
4729Kamryn ThomasF6-82ReturningOmaha18-2.6-1.1
5003Khamani CooperG6-42ReturningOmaha13-3.9-1.3

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Fri Nov 06atBYU #23-24.42%
Sat Nov 07atUtah State #29-20.55%
Fri Nov 13vsLindenwood #258+4.765%
Tue Nov 17vsLamar #238+3.962%
Wed Nov 25NUC Davis #255-0.748%
Thu Nov 26NPacific #175-3.140%
Fri Nov 27NJacksonville State #203-2.243%
Sat Dec 05atLindenwood #258-6.430%
Tue Dec 08atTexas Tech #15-23.43%
Tue Dec 15vsSam Houston #185+2.257%
Sun Dec 20NKent State #133-5.334%
Tue Dec 29atKansas State #99-13.414%
Thu Jan 07vsNorth Dakota #310conf+3.762%
Sat Jan 09vsNorth Dakota State #225conf+0.351%
Sat Jan 16atSt. Thomas-Minnesota #130conf-7.826%
Thu Jan 21atKansas City #338conf+0.451%
Sat Jan 23atOral Roberts #323conf+0.351%
Thu Jan 28vsSouth Dakota #322conf+4.564%
Sun Jan 31vsSouth Dakota State #213conf+0.050%
Thu Feb 04atNorth Dakota State #225conf-3.838%
Sat Feb 06atNorth Dakota #310conf-0.848%
Sat Feb 13vsSt. Thomas-Minnesota #130conf-3.240%
Thu Feb 18vsOral Roberts #323conf+4.464%
Sun Feb 21vsKansas City #338conf+5.266%
Thu Feb 25atSouth Dakota State #213conf-4.436%
Sat Feb 27atSouth Dakota #322conf-0.848%

Projected margin is from Omaha's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.