Teams › Big West · Compare Cal State Northridge with another team
Cal State Northridge
Cal State Northridge returns 63% of last season's minutes and rates #297 on offense and #135 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.1 to +4.4.
Why we have them here
Cal State Northridge's preseason projection of -2.8 (No. 227 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.7, about the -2.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 221 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.5, about its neighbours' -0.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.9. It returns 63% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (69%). The projection leans most on Mahmoud Fofana (+2.6), James Evans Jr. (+0.0) and Brooklyn Hicks (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Brooklyn Hicks, a transfer from Montana, at -0.1. Its 80% range, -10.1 to +4.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 46% · Transfer 32% · Other newcomer 22%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 345 | Mahmoud Fofana | F | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Cal State Northridge | 27 | +3.9 | +2.6 |
| 1692 | James Evans Jr. | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Cal State Northridge | 17 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1803 | Brooklyn Hicks | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | Montana | 22 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 2559 | Emmanuel Stephen | C | 7-0 | 2 | Transfer | UNLV | 15 | -0.9 | -0.3 |
| 2967 | Jai Chisolm | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Cal State Northridge | 12 | -1.2 | -0.4 |
| 3035 | Omer Dahan | F | 6-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.5 | -0.3 | |
| 3184 | Jael Martin | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Loyola Marymount | 11 | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| 3541 | Jalen Barbee | F | 6-6 | 2 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.9 | -0.4 | |
| 3541 | Max Rehl | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.9 | -0.4 | |
| 3541 | Quinton Webb | F | 6-6 | 3 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.9 | -0.4 | |
| 3702 | BJ Omot | F | 6-8 | 4 | Other newcomer | 9 | -2.0 | -0.5 | |
| 3784 | Joseph Barrio | G | 6-1 | 2 | Returning | Cal State Northridge | 7 | -2.5 | -0.4 |
| 3818 | Keziah Ekissi | G | 6-3 | 1 | Transfer | Oregon State | 16 | -1.6 | -0.7 |
| 4038 | Davius Loury | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Cal State Northridge | 17 | -1.8 | -0.7 |
| 4112 | Robert Thibiant | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Cal State Northridge | 6 | -3.0 | -0.5 |
| 4723 | Greg Gazarian | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Cal State Northridge | 6 | -4.4 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Nov 04 | at |  Wichita State #62 | -15.3 | 11% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Kansas State #99 | -12.6 | 16% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | at |  Troy #155 | -9.1 | 23% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  Delaware #325 | +9.7 | 78% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | at |  Weber State #233 | -6.6 | 30% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | vs |  Cal Poly #223 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Cal State Bakersfield #328 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Wed Dec 09 | at |  Fresno State #221 | -6.2 | 31% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  North Dakota #310 | +9.3 | 77% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  North Dakota State #225 | +5.7 | 68% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | at |  Sacramento State #199 | conf | -3.6 | 39% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Utah Valley #112 | conf | -8.5 | 25% |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs |  California Baptist #157 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  UC Riverside #252 | conf | +3.3 | 60% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  Long Beach State #278 | conf | +0.0 | 50% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Cal State Fullerton #236 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at |  UC Santa Barbara #103 | conf | -7.7 | 27% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | Cal Poly #223 | conf | -2.6 | 42% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs | Utah Valley #112 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Sacramento State #199 | conf | +1.7 | 55% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at |  UC San Diego #77 | conf | -10.0 | 21% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  UC Irvine #105 | conf | -7.8 | 27% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Cal State Fullerton #236 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Long Beach State #278 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | UC Santa Barbara #103 | conf | -2.8 | 41% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Cal State Bakersfield #328 | conf | +7.0 | 71% |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | UC Riverside #252 | conf | -2.0 | 44% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | California Baptist #157 | conf | -5.0 | 35% |
| Thu Mar 04 | vs | UC Irvine #105 | conf | -2.8 | 41% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | UC San Diego #77 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
Projected margin is from Cal State Northridge's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.