Roster Math

Teams › NEC · Compare Wagner with another team

Wagner

Wagner returns 88% of last season's minutes and rates #294 on offense and #274 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -13.6 to +1.0.

-6.3
Rating · #291 of 365
-3.8
Offense · #294
-2.5
Defense · #274
-13.6 to +1.0
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
11-16
Projected record · 6 to 15 wins
8-8
Projected in NEC · 5 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Wagner's preseason projection of -6.3 (No. 291 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -3.0, about the -3.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 289 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.4, about its neighbours' -1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.2. It returns 88% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (70%). The projection leans most on Travis Gray (+1.3), Binael Basil (+0.4) and Sam Smith (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Ryan Pettis, a transfer from Fordham, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -13.6 to +1.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 88% · Transfer 4%

Travis Gray+1.3
Binael Basil+0.4
Sam Smith+0.1
Makhai Anderson-0.3
Michael Cooper-0.3
Ryan Pettis-0.4
Elijah Brown-0.5
Bryan Akanmu-0.7
Huascar Cuevas-0.8
Eddie Placer-1.0
John Awoke-1.1
Jaden Baker-1.4
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
697Travis GrayG6-52ReturningWagner20+2.6+1.3
1242Binael BasilF6-71ReturningWagner21+0.7+0.4
1509Sam SmithF6-61ReturningWagner14+0.2+0.1
2436Makhai AndersonG6-61ReturningWagner11-0.9-0.3
2737Michael CooperG6-61ReturningWagner13-1.0-0.3
3283Ryan PettisG6-42TransferFordham9-1.7-0.4
4001Bryan AkanmuF6-61ReturningWagner18-1.7-0.7
4344Eddie PlacerG6-53ReturningWagner21-1.9-1.0
4364Elijah BrownG6-41ReturningWagner6-3.7-0.5
4555John AwokeG6-31ReturningWagner21-2.1-1.1
4759Huascar CuevasG5-111ReturningWagner9-3.8-0.8
4798Jaden BakerG6-22ReturningWagner24-2.4-1.4

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Tue Nov 03atBoston College #114-12.216%
Fri Nov 06atMiami #18-23.43%
Mon Nov 09atUConn #4-25.72%
Tue Nov 17atSaint Joseph's #129-11.518%
Fri Nov 20atMaryland #64-17.28%
Tue Dec 01atMarquette #47-20.25%
Fri Dec 04atHigh Point #40-20.65%
Tue Dec 08atSt. John's #21-23.63%
Sat Dec 12vsUMBC #180+1.154%
Thu Dec 17vsManhattan #309+5.768%
Wed Dec 23vsNJIT #347+8.475%
Sat Jan 02atStonehill #354conf+2.257%
Mon Jan 04atCentral Connecticut #316conf-0.549%
Fri Jan 08atNew Haven #326conf+0.050%
Sun Jan 10vsChicago State #337conf+4.063%
Thu Jan 14vsMercyhurst #239conf+0.050%
Sat Jan 16vsLe Moyne #217conf-0.947%
Wed Jan 20atChicago State #337conf+0.050%
Thu Jan 28atFairleigh Dickinson #334conf-0.648%
Sat Jan 30vsLong Island University #210conf-1.147%
Thu Feb 04vsStonehill #354conf+6.269%
Sat Feb 06vsNew Haven #326conf+3.361%
Sat Feb 13atLong Island University #210conf-5.732%
Wed Feb 17vsFairleigh Dickinson #334conf+3.862%
Sat Feb 20vsCentral Connecticut #316conf+2.959%
Thu Feb 25atLe Moyne #217conf-5.633%
Sat Feb 27atMercyhurst #239conf-4.934%

Projected margin is from Wagner's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.