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San Diego
San Diego returns 48% of last season's minutes and rates #264 on offense and #254 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.9 to +2.5.
Why we have them here
San Diego's preseason projection of -4.7 (No. 263 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.4, more than the -2.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 290 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.3, about its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.2. It returns 48% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Davion Hill (+2.5), Adrian McIntyre (+1.2) and Sekou Konneh (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Davion Hill, a transfer from Ball State, at +2.5. Its 80% range, -11.9 to +2.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 45% · Transfer 48% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 3%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 341 | Davion Hill | G | 6-2 | 1 | Transfer | Ball State | 24 | +4.2 | +2.5 |
| 788 | Adrian McIntyre | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | San Diego | 23 | +2.1 | +1.2 |
| 1496 | Sekou Konneh | F | 6-9 | 1 | Transfer | Milwaukee | 12 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 1971 | Marqui Worthy Jr. | G | 6-4 | 3 | Transfer | UC Riverside | 26 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 2461 | Brannon Martinsen | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| 2514 | Vuk Boskovic | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | San Diego | 18 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| 2733 | Tim Moore Jr. | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | San Diego | 13 | -1.1 | -0.3 |
| 3403 | Piotr Winkowski | C | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | San Diego | 6 | -2.3 | -0.3 |
| 3422 | Boden Grant | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.2 | -0.3 | |
| 3534 | Nick Del Bosque | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | San Diego | 3 | -3.4 | -0.2 |
| 3943 | Josh Hecht | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | San Diego | 3 | -3.9 | -0.3 |
| 4017 | Brandon Benjamin | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | San Diego | 6 | -3.0 | -0.4 |
| 4038 | Caleb Versher | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | San Diego | 5 | -3.3 | -0.4 |
| 4221 | Dusty Stromer | G | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | Grand Canyon | 17 | -1.9 | -0.8 |
| 4638 | Alejandro Aviles | F | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | San Diego | 8 | -3.7 | -0.7 |
| 4771 | Antonio Munoz | F | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | Grambling | 17 | -2.7 | -1.2 |
| 4778 | Emmanuel Callas | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | San Diego | 6 | -4.8 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Nov 06 | vs | +5.0 | 66% | ||
| Tue Nov 10 | at | -16.1 | 10% | ||
| Fri Nov 13 | vs | +8.4 | 75% | ||
| Wed Nov 18 | vs | +4.6 | 64% | ||
| Sat Nov 21 | N | -6.4 | 30% | ||
| Sun Nov 22 | vs | -0.1 | 50% | ||
| Sat Nov 28 | vs | +0.1 | 50% | ||
| Tue Dec 01 | vs | +2.4 | 58% | ||
| Sat Dec 05 | at | -11.1 | 18% | ||
| Tue Dec 08 | vs | -8.6 | 25% | ||
| Fri Dec 11 | vs | +9.0 | 76% | ||
| Sun Dec 20 | at | -18.1 | 7% | ||
| Tue Dec 22 | vs | +8.1 | 74% | ||
| Sat Jan 02 | at | conf | -13.4 | 14% | |
| Wed Jan 06 | at | conf | -6.0 | 32% | |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs | conf | +5.6 | 67% | |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs | conf | -8.3 | 25% | |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs | conf | +1.2 | 54% | |
| Wed Jan 20 | at | conf | -8.9 | 24% | |
| Wed Jan 27 | at | conf | -2.5 | 42% | |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | conf | -0.6 | 48% | |
| Wed Feb 03 | at | conf | -4.4 | 36% | |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | conf | -13.4 | 14% | |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs | conf | -1.2 | 46% | |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | conf | -3.9 | 37% | |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | conf | +1.4 | 54% | |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | conf | +0.8 | 53% | |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | conf | -1.0 | 47% | |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
Projected margin is from San Diego's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.