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Washington State
Washington State returns 34% of last season's minutes and rates #182 on offense and #149 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -7.0 to +7.4.
Why we have them here
Washington State's preseason projection of +0.3 (No. 162 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.9, less than the +0.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 199 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.1, about its neighbours' +0.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.0. It returns 34% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (58%). The projection leans most on Ronnie Harrison (+0.7), Sebastian Akins (+0.3) and RJ Jones (+0.2); the newcomer who matters most is Ronnie Harrison, a transfer from East Texas A&M, at +0.7. Its 80% range, -7.0 to +7.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 28% · Transfer 59% · Freshman 4% · Other newcomer 9%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1066 | Ronnie Harrison | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | East Texas A&M | 25 | +1.1 | +0.7 |
| 1223 | RJ Jones | G | 6-2 | 3 | Transfer | TCU | 8 | +1.2 | +0.2 |
| 1248 | Sebastian Akins | G | 6-2 | 2 | Transfer | Wake Forest | 17 | +0.8 | +0.3 |
| 1356 | Adria Rodriguez | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Washington State | 20 | +0.5 | +0.2 |
| 1580 | Simon Hildebrandt | F | 6-9 | 2 | Returning | Washington State | 17 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1720 | Jaylen Harrell | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | Providence | 8 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1961 | Fraser Roxburgh | F | 6-7 | 2 | Transfer | Manhattan | 25 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 2267 | Tyler Kropp | F | 6-9 | 1 | Transfer | Northwestern | 12 | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| 2757 | Dio Blakely | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Washington State | 4 | -1.9 | -0.2 |
| 2871 | Brunel Madzou | G | 6-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.7 | -0.2 | |
| 2939 | Brayden Kyman | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | -1.5 | -0.3 |
| 3316 | Lazerek Houston | G | 1 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.0 | -0.3 | ||
| 3383 | Dominik Robinson | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.1 | -0.3 | |
| 3528 | Emmanuel Ugbo | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Washington State | 15 | -1.5 | -0.6 |
| 3766 | Ladji Dembele | F | 6-8 | 3 | Transfer | UNLV | 13 | -1.7 | -0.6 |
| 3771 | Jamari Phillips | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | Oregon | 10 | -2.0 | -0.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Davidson #132 | +5.1 | 66% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  High Point #40 | -16.1 | 10% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  Duquesne #156 | -6.0 | 31% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | N |  Hawai'i #179 | +0.7 | 52% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | N |  Duke #2 | -17.7 | 7% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  Sam Houston #185 | +7.6 | 73% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | vs |  Idaho #251 | +9.5 | 78% | |
| Mon Nov 30 | at |  Murray State #117 | -7.5 | 27% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | at |  Southern Illinois #206 | -4.0 | 37% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  North Dakota State #225 | +8.7 | 76% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | at |  Weber State #233 | -4.0 | 37% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | N |  UNLV #139 | -0.9 | 47% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Seattle U #111 | +4.3 | 64% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | N |  Eastern Washington #146 | -0.6 | 48% | |
| Mon Dec 28 | at |  LSU #39 | -14.9 | 11% | |
| Sun Jan 03 | at |  Fresno State #221 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Gonzaga #14 | conf | -10.3 | 20% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Boise State #87 | conf | -8.2 | 25% |
| Sun Jan 17 | vs |  San Diego State #81 | conf | -1.7 | 44% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at |  Colorado State #67 | conf | -8.9 | 23% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Utah State #29 | conf | -13.9 | 13% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  Oregon State #93 | conf | -0.8 | 48% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Fresno State #221 | conf | +5.4 | 67% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Texas State #183 | conf | +4.2 | 63% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at | Oregon State #93 | conf | -7.9 | 26% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Colorado State #67 | conf | -2.6 | 42% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at | Gonzaga #14 | conf | -17.4 | 8% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | San Diego State #81 | conf | -8.5 | 25% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | Boise State #87 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Texas State #183 | conf | -2.2 | 43% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Utah State #29 | conf | -6.9 | 29% |
Projected margin is from Washington State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.