Teams › Pac-12 · Compare Oregon State with another team
Oregon State
Oregon State returns 22% of last season's minutes and rates #71 on offense and #129 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -0.9 to +14.0.
Why we have them here
Oregon State's preseason projection of +6.6 (No. 93 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +6.0, more than the +3.5 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 239 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.7, less than its neighbours' +1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.8. It returns 22% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (41%). The projection leans most on Daniel Freitag (+4.7), Josiah Lake II (+4.0) and DeShawn Gory (+2.4); the newcomer who matters most is Daniel Freitag, a transfer from Buffalo, at +4.7. Its 80% range, -0.9 to +14.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 22% · Transfer 71% · Freshman 3%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | Daniel Freitag | G | 6-2 | 2 | Transfer | Buffalo | 28 | +6.6 | +4.7 |
| 156 | Josiah Lake II | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Oregon State | 31 | +5.2 | +4.0 |
| 393 | DeShawn Gory | F | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | Fresno State | 26 | +3.7 | +2.4 |
| 483 | Chris Johnson | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | UCF | 18 | +3.8 | +1.7 |
| 1135 | Jackson Rasmussen | F | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | Idaho | 27 | +0.9 | +0.6 |
| 1267 | Dennis Evans | C | 7-2 | 3 | Transfer | Grand Canyon | 10 | +1.0 | +0.2 |
| 1340 | Xavion Staton | C | 6-11 | 1 | Transfer | BYU | 7 | +0.9 | +0.1 |
| 1677 | Yabi Aklog | C | 6-10 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1896 | Legend Smiley | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | San Francisco | 19 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 2898 | Peteris Pinnis | F | 7-0 | 1 | Transfer | Providence | 5 | -1.8 | -0.2 |
| 3022 | Sean Blakely Drummond | G | 6-4 | 1 | Transfer | San Francisco | 4 | -2.4 | -0.2 |
| 3224 | Kaan Yarkut | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Oregon State | 3 | -2.7 | -0.2 |
| 4575 | Malcolm Christie | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Oregon State | 10 | -3.2 | -0.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Weber State #233 | +13.8 | 87% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  California Baptist #157 | +10.5 | 80% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  Eastern Washington #146 | +10.4 | 80% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | +28.7 | >99% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | vs |  East Texas A&M #319 | +17.0 | 92% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | N |  Oregon #58 | -2.7 | 41% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | N |  Tulsa #82 | -0.9 | 47% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  San Francisco #189 | +5.0 | 66% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | vs |  Milwaukee #242 | +13.6 | 87% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Southern Miss #214 | +12.8 | 85% | |
| Fri Dec 11 | vs |  Lamar #238 | +13.2 | 86% | |
| Mon Dec 14 | vs |  Arizona State #52 | +3.2 | 60% | |
| Thu Dec 17 | vs |  Cleveland State #207 | +12.7 | 85% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | N |  New Mexico #50 | -3.9 | 38% | |
| Wed Dec 23 | vs |  Santa Clara #63 | +4.6 | 64% | |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  San Diego State #81 | conf | +2.9 | 59% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Boise State #87 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  Texas State #183 | conf | +2.0 | 57% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Utah State #29 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Sun Jan 24 | vs |  Gonzaga #14 | conf | -5.6 | 32% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at |  Washington State #162 | conf | +0.8 | 52% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | Utah State #29 | conf | -9.5 | 22% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | Boise State #87 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Colorado State #67 | conf | -4.8 | 35% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs | Washington State #162 | conf | +7.9 | 74% |
| Sun Feb 14 | vs | Texas State #183 | conf | +8.5 | 76% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at |  Fresno State #221 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | San Diego State #81 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Colorado State #67 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at | Gonzaga #14 | conf | -12.8 | 15% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Fresno State #221 | conf | +9.8 | 79% |
Projected margin is from Oregon State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.