Teams › Big Sky · Compare Idaho State with another team
Idaho State
Idaho State returns 64% of last season's minutes and rates #173 on offense and #327 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.7 to +2.7.
Why we have them here
Idaho State's preseason projection of -4.5 (No. 261 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.2, about the -2.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 275 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.0, about its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.7. It returns 64% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Caleb Van De Griend (+2.9), Jamison Guerra (+1.1) and Eyal Harel (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Eyal Harel, a transfer from Pacific, at -0.1. Its 80% range, -11.7 to +2.7, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 61% · Transfer 2% · Other newcomer 37%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | Caleb Van De Griend | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Idaho State | 18 | +6.3 | +2.9 |
| 775 | Jamison Guerra | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Idaho State | 21 | +2.2 | +1.1 |
| 2328 | Connor Hollenbeck | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Idaho State | 23 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| 2341 | Eyal Harel | G | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | Pacific | 4 | -1.4 | -0.1 |
| 2519 | Martin Kheil | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Idaho State | 23 | -0.7 | -0.4 |
| 2619 | Blake Daberkow | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Idaho State | 7 | -1.3 | -0.2 |
| 2698 | McKae Amundsen | F | 5-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.7 | -0.2 | |
| 2727 | Jaedyn Brown | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Idaho State | 5 | -1.7 | -0.2 |
| 2764 | Jeremiah Dorsey | F | 5-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | |
| 2840 | MaCarhy Morris | F | 6-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | |
| 2840 | Aden Goffe | F | 6-0 | 2 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | |
| 3067 | Nathan Amoran | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.0 | -0.3 | |
| 3229 | Ty Virgil | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | |
| 3330 | Eli Garner | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | |
| 3330 | Joven Dulay | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | |
| 3330 | Ike Palmer | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | |
| 3432 | Trey Arland | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.3 | -0.3 | |
| 3564 | Kenyon DeMuynck | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.4 | -0.3 | |
| 3588 | Kasen Carpenter | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Idaho State | 2 | -3.7 | -0.2 |
| 3647 | Malachi Johnson | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.5 | -0.4 | |
| 3647 | Bryce Lowenbach | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.5 | -0.4 | |
| 3720 | Malik Johnson | F | 6-11 | 2 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.5 | -0.4 | |
| 3730 | Landen Birley | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Idaho State | 3 | -3.3 | -0.3 |
| 5206 | Lachlan Brewer | G | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Idaho State | 19 | -4.8 | -2.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Utah State #29 | -19.6 | 5% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Wyoming #121 | -10.5 | 20% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | at |  Air Force #357 | +1.8 | 56% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  Seattle U #111 | -11.4 | 18% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  South Dakota State #213 | +3.6 | 62% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | at |  Boise State #87 | -14.1 | 12% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | at |  Southern Utah #292 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Utah Tech #275 | conf | -2.0 | 44% |
| Thu Dec 10 | vs |  Cal State Fullerton #236 | +4.9 | 65% | |
| Thu Dec 17 | at |  UC Davis #255 | -4.9 | 35% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | at |  North Dakota State #225 | -6.3 | 30% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Northern Arizona #307 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs |  Montana State #138 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Montana #222 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  Northern Colorado #128 | conf | -6.5 | 30% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Portland State #186 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
| Mon Jan 18 | at |  Eastern Washington #146 | conf | -6.8 | 29% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Weber State #233 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Mon Jan 25 | at |  Idaho #251 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs | Utah Tech #275 | conf | +2.7 | 59% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Southern Utah #292 | conf | +3.6 | 61% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at | Northern Arizona #307 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Portland State #186 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Northern Colorado #128 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Montana #222 | conf | -3.9 | 38% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Montana State #138 | conf | -6.7 | 29% |
| Mon Feb 22 | vs | Eastern Washington #146 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Weber State #233 | conf | -4.1 | 37% |
| Mon Mar 01 | vs | Idaho #251 | conf | +1.9 | 56% |
Projected margin is from Idaho State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.