Roster Math

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Missouri State

Missouri State returns 86% of last season's minutes and rates #192 on offense and #219 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.1 to +5.6.

-1.7
Rating · #201 of 365
-0.8
Offense · #192
-0.9
Defense · #219
-9.1 to +5.6
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
12-15
Projected record · 7 to 18 wins
8-10
Projected in CUSA · 4 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Missouri State's preseason projection of -1.7 (No. 201 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.6, about the -1.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 240 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.6, about its neighbours' -0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.8. It returns 86% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (65%). The projection leans most on Michael Osei-Bonsu (+3.9), Keith Palek III (+2.3) and Kobi Williams (-0.2); the newcomer who matters most is Collin Clark, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.5. Its 80% range, -9.1 to +5.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 82% · Other newcomer 14%

Michael Osei-Bonsu+3.9
Keith Palek III+2.3
Kobi Williams-0.2
Collin Clark-0.5
Andrej Acimovic-0.5
Melakih Cunningham-0.5
Ryder Cheesman-0.5
Isaiah Medina-0.5
Tyrique Brooks-0.8
Amar Kuljuhovic-0.8
Trey Williams Jr.-0.8
Cameron Boone-0.9
Logan Epes-1.0
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
130Michael Osei-BonsuF6-42ReturningMissouri State26+6.1+3.9
454Keith Palek IIIF6-91ReturningMissouri State29+3.2+2.3
1959Kobi WilliamsG6-43ReturningMissouri State27-0.3-0.2
3609Melakih CunninghamG6-71ReturningMissouri State12-1.7-0.5
3705Collin ClarkF6-70Other newcomer9-2.1-0.5
3843Trey Williams Jr.G6-31ReturningMissouri State25-1.3-0.8
3895Andrej AcimovicF6-100Other newcomer9-2.2-0.5
4012Ryder CheesmanG6-41ReturningMissouri State8-2.5-0.5
4021Isaiah MedinaF7-00Other newcomer9-2.4-0.5
4605Amar KuljuhovicC6-83ReturningMissouri State10-3.2-0.8
4650Tyrique BrooksF6-42ReturningMissouri State9-3.5-0.8
4836Cameron BooneF6-101ReturningMissouri State9-4.1-0.9
4878Logan EpesG6-32ReturningMissouri State10-4.0-1.0

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 16vsAbilene Christian #192+4.665%
Sat Nov 21vsDrake #104+0.752%
Fri Nov 27atOral Roberts #323-0.449%
Mon Nov 30vsLindenwood #258+6.971%
Thu Dec 03atArkansas State #134-8.924%
Sun Dec 06vsTulsa #82-1.745%
Sat Dec 12atTarleton State #257-4.237%
Fri Dec 18NIowa State #9-15.910%
Mon Dec 21vsUIC #120+1.756%
Thu Dec 31atSam Houston #185conf-2.941%
Sat Jan 02atNew Mexico State #137conf-4.536%
Thu Jan 07vsDelaware #325conf+6.269%
Sat Jan 09vsLiberty #150conf+0.050%
Sat Jan 16atFlorida International #143conf-4.835%
Thu Jan 21atWestern Kentucky #160conf-3.738%
Sat Jan 23atMiddle Tennessee #127conf-5.732%
Thu Jan 28vsKennesaw State #167conf+0.752%
Sat Jan 30vsJacksonville State #203conf+1.856%
Thu Feb 04atLiberty #150conf-4.635%
Sat Feb 06atDelaware #325conf+3.762%
Sat Feb 13vsFlorida International #143conf-0.349%
Thu Feb 18vsMiddle Tennessee #127conf-1.246%
Sat Feb 20vsWestern Kentucky #160conf+0.351%
Thu Feb 25atKennesaw State #167conf-4.037%
Sat Feb 27atJacksonville State #203conf-1.745%
Thu Mar 04vsNew Mexico State #137conf-0.548%
Sat Mar 06vsSam Houston #185conf+1.254%

Projected margin is from Missouri State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.