Teams › MAC · Compare Toledo with another team
Toledo
Toledo returns 57% of last season's minutes and rates #163 on offense and #210 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -7.7 to +7.2.
Why we have them here
Toledo's preseason projection of -0.3 (No. 173 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.7, less than the -0.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 117 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.9, about its neighbours' +0.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.3. It returns 57% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (64%). The projection leans most on Austin Parks (+1.6), Mynor Strong (+0.3) and Sean Jones (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Sean Jones, a transfer from Marquette, at +0.1. Its 80% range, -7.7 to +7.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 57% · Transfer 10% · Freshman 13% · Other newcomer 5%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 623 | Austin Parks | C | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | Toledo | 26 | +2.6 | +1.6 |
| 1314 | Mynor Strong | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Toledo | 20 | +0.5 | +0.3 |
| 1562 | Sean Jones | G | 5-10 | 4 | Transfer | Marquette | 21 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| 1676 | Will James Jr. | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Toledo | 15 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2984 | Chris Riddle | F | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Toledo | 14 | -1.2 | -0.4 |
| 3269 | Toby Nwokolo | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Toledo | 9 | -1.7 | -0.4 |
| 3316 | Richard Barron | G | 1 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.6 | -0.4 | ||
| 3393 | Jaylohn Allen | G | 6-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| 3662 | Rashaun Porter | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 14 | -1.6 | -0.6 |
| 3833 | Tyler Ode | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Toledo | 9 | -2.1 | -0.5 |
| 5021 | Jaylan Ouwinga | F | 6-9 | 2 | Returning | Toledo | 19 | -3.3 | -1.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Arkansas State #134 | -7.9 | 26% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | at |  Michigan State #6 | -22.0 | 4% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  Marshall #247 | -3.5 | 39% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Wright State #165 | +4.6 | 65% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  Detroit Mercy #312 | -0.1 | 50% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | vs |  Robert Morris #113 | +2.2 | 57% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | at |  Valparaiso #172 | -5.4 | 33% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Ohio #232 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Kent State #133 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  Eastern Michigan #244 | conf | +4.1 | 63% |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Western Michigan #151 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Oakland #159 | +4.5 | 64% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | at |  Michigan #11 | -21.4 | 4% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Central Michigan #259 | conf | -0.2 | 49% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Miami (OH) #96 | conf | -2.6 | 42% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Buffalo #209 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Massachusetts #178 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Fri Jan 15 | vs |  Akron #73 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at |  Ball State #153 | conf | -2.7 | 41% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | Buffalo #209 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs | Central Michigan #259 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Bowling Green #266 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
| Tue Feb 02 | at | Eastern Michigan #244 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs | Ball State #153 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Western Michigan #151 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at | Miami (OH) #96 | conf | -7.6 | 27% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Bowling Green #266 | conf | +5.1 | 66% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at | Akron #73 | conf | -9.5 | 22% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Kent State #133 | conf | -3.5 | 39% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | Massachusetts #178 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
| Fri Mar 05 | vs | Ohio #232 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
Projected margin is from Toledo's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.