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Cal Poly
Cal Poly returns 100% of last season's minutes and rates #146 on offense and #303 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.0 to +4.7.
Why we have them here
Cal Poly's preseason projection of -2.6 (No. 223 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.0, more than the -1.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 271 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.0, about its neighbours' -0.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.9. It returns 100% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (69%). The projection leans most on Hamad Mousa (+3.4), Peter Bandelj (+2.5) and Guzman Vasilic (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Braden Freeman, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -10.0 to +4.7, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 97% · Other newcomer 3%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | Hamad Mousa | G | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Cal Poly | 27 | +4.9 | +3.4 |
| 379 | Peter Bandelj | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Cal Poly | 28 | +3.6 | +2.5 |
| 1748 | Guzman Vasilic | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Cal Poly | 19 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 1964 | Cayden Ward | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Cal Poly | 24 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 2606 | Jackson Mosley | G | 5-10 | 3 | Returning | Cal Poly | 10 | -1.1 | -0.3 |
| 3169 | Jess Esso Essis | G | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Cal Poly | 12 | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| 3494 | Troy Plumtree | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Cal Poly | 10 | -1.7 | -0.4 |
| 3536 | Braden Freeman | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.2 | -0.4 | |
| 3655 | Jason Scott | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Cal Poly | 5 | -2.6 | -0.3 |
| 3823 | Eric Brown | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Cal Poly | 4 | -3.4 | -0.3 |
| 4207 | Austin Goode | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Cal Poly | 15 | -2.0 | -0.8 |
| 4466 | Jake Davis | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Cal Poly | 17 | -2.3 | -0.9 |
| 4493 | Ali Assran | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Cal Poly | 10 | -2.9 | -0.8 |
| 4821 | Kieran Elliott | G | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Cal Poly | 11 | -3.5 | -1.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Nov 05 | at |  Arizona #3 | -28.7 | 1% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | at |  Grand Canyon #59 | -16.1 | 10% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  Idaho #251 | -4.6 | 36% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | at |  Montana State #138 | -9.4 | 23% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | vs |  Northern Arizona #307 | +8.7 | 76% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | at |  Cal State Northridge #227 | conf | -2.5 | 42% |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  UC Santa Barbara #103 | conf | -7.6 | 27% |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Montana #222 | +5.7 | 67% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | at |  Colorado #85 | -15.5 | 11% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  UNLV #139 | -9.6 | 22% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | at |  UC Riverside #252 | conf | -1.9 | 44% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  California Baptist #157 | conf | -4.9 | 35% |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs |  Long Beach State #278 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Cal State Fullerton #236 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  Sacramento State #199 | conf | -3.4 | 39% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Utah Valley #112 | conf | -8.5 | 25% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  Cal State Bakersfield #328 | conf | +7.0 | 71% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | Cal State Northridge #227 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs |  UC Irvine #105 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  UC San Diego #77 | conf | -5.6 | 33% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at | Cal State Fullerton #236 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Long Beach State #278 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | California Baptist #157 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | UC Riverside #252 | conf | +3.3 | 60% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Cal State Bakersfield #328 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | UC Santa Barbara #103 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | UC San Diego #77 | conf | -10.0 | 21% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | UC Irvine #105 | conf | -7.7 | 27% |
| Thu Mar 04 | vs | Utah Valley #112 | conf | -2.4 | 43% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Sacramento State #199 | conf | +1.7 | 55% |
Projected margin is from Cal Poly's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.