Teams › Big Sky · Compare Weber State with another team
Weber State
Weber State returns 69% of last season's minutes and rates #195 on offense and #273 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.7 to +3.9.
Why we have them here
Weber State's preseason projection of -3.3 (No. 233 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.2, about the -2.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 179 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.1, about its neighbours' -0.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.6. It returns 69% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (65%). The projection leans most on Viljami Vartiainen (+2.2), Brock Felder (+0.3) and Aaron Powell (-0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Brock Felder, a transfer from Seattle U, at +0.3. Its 80% range, -10.7 to +3.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 59% · Transfer 7% · Other newcomer 34%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 463 | Viljami Vartiainen | G | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Weber State | 27 | +3.2 | +2.2 |
| 1248 | Brock Felder | F | 6-8 | 3 | Transfer | Seattle U | 13 | +0.9 | +0.3 |
| 3008 | Aaron Powell | F | 6-1 | 2 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.4 | -0.3 | |
| 3212 | David Hansen | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Weber State | 13 | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| 3241 | Tyler Christensen | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.6 | -0.4 | |
| 3353 | Alvin Jackson III | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.7 | -0.4 | |
| 3353 | Dylan Warlick | F | 6-5 | 2 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.7 | -0.4 | |
| 3353 | Anthony Moore | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.7 | -0.4 | |
| 3459 | Mason Abittan | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.7 | -0.4 | |
| 3541 | Dyllan Thompson | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.8 | -0.5 | |
| 3653 | Duce Paschal | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Weber State | 18 | -1.4 | -0.6 |
| 3676 | ArDarius Grayson | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | Weber State | 17 | -1.5 | -0.6 |
| 4097 | Trevor Hennig | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Weber State | 23 | -1.6 | -0.9 |
| 4160 | Brady Smith | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | Weber State | 9 | -2.6 | -0.6 |
| 4278 | Declan Cutler | F | 6-9 | 2 | Returning | Weber State | 12 | -2.4 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Oregon State #93 | -13.8 | 13% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  Utah Valley #112 | +1.6 | 55% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  Utah #72 | -16.1 | 10% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  Utah State #29 | -20.0 | 5% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  Tarleton State #257 | +7.4 | 72% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | vs |  Cal State Northridge #227 | +6.6 | 70% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | at |  Cal State Fullerton #236 | -5.5 | 33% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | at |  Utah Tech #275 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Southern Utah #292 | conf | -0.4 | 49% |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  Washington State #162 | +4.0 | 63% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | at |  BYU #23 | -24.1 | 3% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | at |  UC Santa Barbara #103 | -10.9 | 19% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Northern Arizona #307 | conf | +5.8 | 68% |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs |  Montana #222 | conf | +2.8 | 59% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Montana State #138 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  Portland State #186 | conf | -5.0 | 34% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Northern Colorado #128 | conf | -6.0 | 31% |
| Mon Jan 18 | vs |  Idaho #251 | conf | +3.7 | 62% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Idaho State #261 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Mon Jan 25 | at |  Eastern Washington #146 | conf | -6.4 | 30% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs | Southern Utah #292 | conf | +5.6 | 67% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Utah Tech #275 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Northern Arizona #307 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Northern Colorado #128 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Portland State #186 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Montana State #138 | conf | -6.3 | 30% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Montana #222 | conf | -3.3 | 40% |
| Mon Feb 22 | at | Idaho #251 | conf | -1.7 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Idaho State #261 | conf | +4.1 | 63% |
| Mon Mar 01 | vs | Eastern Washington #146 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
Projected margin is from Weber State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.