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Portland State

Portland State returns 57% of last season's minutes and rates #274 on offense and #105 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -8.1 to +6.3.

-0.9

Rating · #186 of 365

-3.1

Offense · #274

+2.2

Defense · #105

-8.1 to +6.3

80% range

Chance of top 25

Chance of No. 1

13-15

Projected record · 8 to 19 wins

11-9

Projected in Big Sky · 7 to 15 wins

Why we have them here

Portland State's preseason projection of -0.9 (No. 186 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.9, less than the -1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 150 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.1, about its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.6. It returns 57% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (67%). The projection leans most on Jaylin Henderson (+2.5), Koren Johnson (+0.5) and Luke Kearney (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Koren Johnson, a transfer from Ole Miss, at +0.5. Its 80% range, -8.1 to +6.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 51% · Transfer 15% · Other newcomer 34%

Jaylin Henderson+2.5

Koren Johnson+0.5

Luke Kearney-0.1

Sebastian Tidor-0.2

Trevor Frank-0.2

Gantas Krianauskas-0.2

Nehemiah Pollard-0.2

Dennis Johnson III-0.2

Yaroslav Nikonov-0.2

Antonio Pusateri-0.3

Isaac Brice-0.3

Samuel Stewart IV-0.3

Francesco Corato-0.3

Alexandros Skliros-0.3

Jaquay Randolph-0.3

Matt Beatty-0.3

Colt Ness-0.3

Brayden Barron-0.3

KC Ibekwe-0.4

Mozae Downing-Rivers-0.4

Isaiah Williams-0.7

Alex Dupre-1.3

Rank	Player	Pos	Ht	D1 yrs	Group	From	MPG	Rating	Contrib.
432	Jaylin Henderson	G	6-3	3	Returning	Portland State	32	+3.1	+2.5
1055	Koren Johnson	G	6-1	4	Transfer	Ole Miss	14	+1.5	+0.5
2082	Sebastian Tidor	G	6-5	1	Returning	Portland State	14	-0.5	-0.2
2243	Luke Kearney	F	6-7	3	Transfer	Utah State	6	-0.9	-0.1
2509	Trevor Frank	F	6-1	0	Other newcomer		6	-1.3	-0.2
2609	Dennis Johnson III	F	6-3	0	Other newcomer		6	-1.4	-0.2
2636	Gantas Krianauskas	F	6-4	0	Other newcomer		6	-1.5	-0.2
2636	Nehemiah Pollard	F	6-4	0	Other newcomer		6	-1.5	-0.2
2711	Yaroslav Nikonov	F	6-5	0	Other newcomer		6	-1.5	-0.2
2876	Antonio Pusateri	F	6-7	0	Other newcomer		6	-1.6	-0.3
2876	Isaac Brice	F	6-7	3	Other newcomer		6	-1.6	-0.3
2962	Francesco Corato	F	6-8	0	Other newcomer		6	-1.7	-0.3
2962	Alexandros Skliros	F	6-8	0	Other newcomer		6	-1.7	-0.3
2967	Samuel Stewart IV	G	6-4	3	Returning	Portland State	6	-1.7	-0.3
3137	Jaquay Randolph	F	6-10	1	Other newcomer		7	-1.8	-0.3
3137	Matt Beatty	F	6-10	0	Other newcomer		7	-1.8	-0.3
3229	Colt Ness	G	6-0	1	Returning	Portland State	7	-1.9	-0.3
3336	KC Ibekwe	C	6-11	4	Transfer	Pacific	10	-1.6	-0.4
3395	Brayden Barron	F	6-6	1	Returning	Portland State	7	-2.1	-0.3
3766	Mozae Downing-Rivers	G	6-6	2	Returning	Portland State	7	-2.4	-0.4
4135	Isaiah Williams	G	6-7	1	Returning	Portland State	14	-2.0	-0.7
5001	Alex Dupre	G	6-5	1	Returning	Portland State	14	-3.7	-1.3

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

Date		Opponent		Proj. margin	Win prob.
Sat Nov 07	at	Seattle U #111		-9.3	23%
Wed Nov 11	at	Colorado State #67		-12.7	15%
Sat Nov 14	at	San Francisco #189		-5.2	34%
Mon Nov 16	at	Saint Mary's #60		-13.8	13%
Sun Nov 22	vs	Cal State Fullerton #236		+8.7	76%
Wed Nov 25	at	UC Riverside #252		-3.7	38%
Sat Nov 28	at	Southern Illinois #206		-4.9	35%
Thu Dec 03	vs	Eastern Washington #146	conf	+1.7	56%
Sat Dec 05	vs	Idaho #251	conf	+5.2	66%
Sun Dec 20	at	Oregon #58		-13.7	13%
Thu Dec 31	at	Montana State #138	conf	-4.5	36%
Sat Jan 02	at	Montana #222	conf	-1.5	45%
Thu Jan 07	at	Utah Tech #275	conf	+0.5	52%
Sat Jan 09	at	Southern Utah #292	conf	+1.4	54%
Thu Jan 14	vs	Weber State #233	conf	+5.0	66%
Sat Jan 16	vs	Idaho State #261	conf	+5.5	67%
Thu Jan 21	vs	Northern Arizona #307	conf	+7.2	72%
Mon Jan 25	at	Northern Colorado #128	conf	-4.2	37%
Thu Jan 28	at	Idaho #251	conf	+0.0	50%
Sat Jan 30	at	Eastern Washington #146	conf	-4.5	36%
Thu Feb 04	vs	Montana #222	conf	+4.3	64%
Sat Feb 06	vs	Montana State #138	conf	+1.4	55%
Thu Feb 11	at	Idaho State #261	conf	+0.1	50%
Sat Feb 13	at	Weber State #233	conf	-1.6	45%
Thu Feb 18	vs	Southern Utah #292	conf	+7.2	72%
Sat Feb 20	vs	Utah Tech #275	conf	+6.2	69%
Mon Feb 22	at	Northern Arizona #307	conf	+1.5	55%
Sat Feb 27	vs	Northern Colorado #128	conf	+0.8	53%

Projected margin is from Portland State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.