Roster Math

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Boston University

Boston University returns 89% of last season's minutes and rates #150 on offense and #317 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.3 to +4.4.

-3.0
Rating · #230 of 365
+0.8
Offense · #150
-3.8
Defense · #317
-10.3 to +4.4
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-14
Projected record · 10 to 21 wins
10-8
Projected in Patriot · 6 to 14 wins

Why we have them here

Boston University's preseason projection of -3.0 (No. 230 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.4, about the -2.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 231 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.2, about its neighbours' -0.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.7. It returns 89% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (65%). The projection leans most on Michael McNair (+2.4), Kyrone Alexander (+0.6) and Darnell Lloyd (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Darnell Lloyd, a freshman, recruit No. 327, at -0.1. Its 80% range, -10.3 to +4.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 79% · Transfer 4% · Freshman 2% · Other newcomer 9%

Michael McNair+2.4
Kyrone Alexander+0.6
Darnell Lloyd-0.1
Michelangelo Oberti-0.2
Andrew Bhesania-0.3
Spencer Joyner-0.4
Matai Baptiste-0.5
Peter Carr-0.6
Donte Tisinger Jr.-0.7
Azmar Abdullah-0.8
Sam Hughes-1.1
Quinn Nielsen-1.1
Ethan Okwuosa-1.1
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
448Michael McNairG6-53ReturningBoston University30+3.2+2.4
1037Kyrone AlexanderG6-53ReturningBoston University15+1.5+0.6
2305Darnell LloydC6-90FreshmanHigh school5-1.2-0.1
2369Michelangelo ObertiC6-102TransferPennsylvania8-0.9-0.2
2556Andrew BhesaniaF6-91ReturningBoston University11-1.0-0.3
3517Spencer JoynerF6-43Other newcomer10-1.8-0.4
3709Matai BaptisteF6-73Other newcomer9-2.0-0.5
3823Azmar AbdullahG6-32ReturningBoston University25-1.3-0.8
3854Donte Tisinger Jr.G6-31ReturningBoston University19-1.5-0.7
4260Sam HughesF6-61ReturningBoston University26-1.6-1.1
4460Peter CarrG6-52ReturningBoston University8-3.3-0.6
4781Ethan OkwuosaG6-33ReturningBoston University15-3.0-1.1
4965Quinn NielsenF6-113ReturningBoston University10-4.2-1.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsNortheastern #296+8.074%
Fri Nov 06atBrown #184-6.330%
Mon Nov 09atNorthwestern #79-13.214%
Sun Nov 15vsDartmouth #290+7.773%
Wed Nov 18atMerrimack #176-6.330%
Sat Nov 21vsColumbia #169+3.561%
Tue Nov 24atHarvard #123-7.726%
Tue Dec 01atFordham #125-8.225%
Sat Dec 05vsNew Hampshire #335+9.879%
Tue Dec 08atSaint Joseph's #129-9.023%
Sat Dec 12atMaine #318-1.545%
Sun Dec 20atUMass Lowell #287-4.037%
Wed Dec 30atLoyola Maryland #344conf+4.163%
Sat Jan 02atLehigh #256conf-1.146%
Wed Jan 06vsBucknell #313conf+5.668%
Sat Jan 09vsNavy #174conf+0.752%
Wed Jan 13atLafayette #342conf+3.361%
Sat Jan 16vsAmerican University #188conf+1.153%
Mon Jan 18atColgate #197conf-3.439%
Sat Jan 23atHoly Cross #352conf+4.264%
Wed Jan 27vsLafayette #342conf+6.971%
Sat Jan 30atAmerican University #188conf-3.838%
Wed Feb 03vsLehigh #256conf+3.360%
Sat Feb 06atArmy #314conf+2.458%
Wed Feb 10vsColgate #197conf+1.555%
Sat Feb 13vsLoyola Maryland #344conf+7.673%
Mon Feb 15atBucknell #313conf+1.755%
Sun Feb 21vsHoly Cross #352conf+8.375%
Wed Feb 24atNavy #174conf-4.037%
Sat Feb 27vsArmy #314conf+5.768%

Projected margin is from Boston University's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.