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Bucknell
Bucknell returns 72% of last season's minutes and rates #327 on offense and #270 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -15.1 to -0.4.
Why we have them here
Bucknell's preseason projection of -7.8 (No. 313 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -6.0, less than the -4.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 340 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.5, about its neighbours' -1.7; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.4. It returns 72% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (72%). The projection leans most on Achile Spadone (+0.5), Kellen Welch (-0.5) and Jayden Williams (-0.6). Its 80% range, -15.1 to -0.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 72%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1192 | Achile Spadone | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Bucknell | 28 | +0.7 | +0.5 |
| 2913 | Jayden Williams | G | 5-10 | 2 | Returning | Bucknell | 28 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
| 4226 | Grgur Brcic | C | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | Bucknell | 15 | -2.0 | -0.8 |
| 4235 | Kellen Welch | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Bucknell | 7 | -3.2 | -0.5 |
| 4538 | Matt Lange | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Bucknell | 6 | -3.9 | -0.6 |
| 4958 | Patrick O'Brien | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | Bucknell | 11 | -4.1 | -1.1 |
| 4971 | Brandon McCreesh | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Bucknell | 19 | -3.1 | -1.5 |
| 5047 | Aleksander Pachucki | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Bucknell | 19 | -3.4 | -1.6 |
| 5186 | Jacob Meachem | G | 5-8 | 1 | Returning | Bucknell | 10 | -6.0 | -1.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Maryland #64 | -18.3 | 7% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  Old Dominion #297 | +3.8 | 62% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  Virginia #19 | -25.3 | 2% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Columbia #169 | -0.6 | 48% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Akron #73 | -7.0 | 29% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | vs |  Siena #208 | +0.6 | 52% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | at |  Cornell #109 | -13.6 | 14% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  La Salle #218 | -3.7 | 38% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | at |  Pennsylvania #144 | -11.9 | 17% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Delaware #325 | -3.2 | 40% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  St. Thomas-Minnesota #130 | -2.4 | 42% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | at |  UMBC #180 | -9.0 | 23% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | at |  Hofstra #124 | -12.6 | 15% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | vs |  Colgate #197 | conf | -2.7 | 41% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Navy #174 | conf | -7.3 | 28% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Boston University #230 | conf | -5.6 | 32% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Lehigh #256 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Army #314 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Loyola Maryland #344 | conf | +3.5 | 61% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Holy Cross #352 | conf | +4.5 | 64% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | Colgate #197 | conf | -6.8 | 29% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at |  American University #188 | conf | -7.2 | 28% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Army #314 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs | Navy #174 | conf | -3.4 | 39% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Lehigh #256 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at | Holy Cross #352 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Lafayette #342 | conf | +2.9 | 59% |
| Mon Feb 15 | vs | Boston University #230 | conf | -1.7 | 45% |
| Sun Feb 21 | at | Loyola Maryland #344 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | American University #188 | conf | -3.1 | 40% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Lafayette #342 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
Projected margin is from Bucknell's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.