Roster Math

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Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania returns 85% of last season's minutes and rates #216 on offense and #98 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -6.0 to +8.5.

+1.3
Rating · #144 of 365
-1.4
Offense · #216
+2.6
Defense · #98
-6.0 to +8.5
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
13-13
Projected record · 9 to 18 wins
7-7
Projected in Ivy · 4 to 10 wins

Why we have them here

Pennsylvania's preseason projection of +1.3 (No. 144 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.6, more than the +0.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 147 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.3, about its neighbours' +0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.0. It returns 85% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (49%). The projection leans most on TJ Power (+4.1), AJ Levine (+1.2) and Dalton Scantlebury (+0.7); the newcomer who matters most is Ryan Altman, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -6.0 to +8.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 79% · Transfer 8% · Freshman 8% · Other newcomer 6%

TJ Power+4.1
AJ Levine+1.2
Dalton Scantlebury+0.7
Jay Jones+0.4
Augustus Gerhart+0.0
Lucas Lueth-0.1
William Kruse-0.2
Ryan Altman-0.2
Bradyn Foster-0.2
Payton Kamin-0.3
Chris Ubochi-0.3
Isaiah Carroll-0.3
Alex Massung-0.4
Ethan Lin-0.4
Niklas Polonowski-0.5
Sir Mohammed-0.8
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
149TJ PowerF6-93ReturningPennsylvania31+5.2+4.1
783AJ LevineG6-02ReturningPennsylvania24+2.0+1.2
969Dalton ScantleburyC6-91ReturningPennsylvania17+1.7+0.7
1166Jay JonesG6-41ReturningPennsylvania17+1.0+0.4
1701Augustus GerhartF6-93ReturningPennsylvania21-0.1+0.0
1788Lucas LuethF6-71ReturningPennsylvania17-0.2-0.1
2483William KruseF6-111ReturningPennsylvania6-1.3-0.2
2728Ryan AltmanF6-60Other newcomer6-1.6-0.2
2855Bradyn FosterF6-82ReturningPennsylvania5-1.8-0.2
2933Isaiah CarrollF6-60FreshmanHigh school9-1.4-0.3
2978Chris UbochiF6-93Other newcomer6-1.7-0.3
3107Payton KaminF6-71ReturningPennsylvania5-2.0-0.3
3565Alex MassungG6-41ReturningPennsylvania6-2.3-0.4
3713Ethan LinG6-50FreshmanHigh school7-2.4-0.4
4066Niklas PolonowskiF6-63ReturningPennsylvania7-2.8-0.5
4223Sir MohammedG6-62TransferNotre Dame15-2.1-0.8

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Thu Nov 05atIllinois #5-21.84%
Mon Nov 09vsHoward #196+7.673%
Wed Nov 11atNavy #174-4.336%
Sat Nov 14atSaint Joseph's #129-6.530%
Sat Nov 21atLa Salle #218-3.738%
Tue Nov 24vsDrexel #254+8.976%
Fri Nov 27vsTowson #193+7.172%
Sat Nov 28vsBucknell #313+11.983%
Mon Dec 07atLafayette #342+3.461%
Sat Dec 19vsMonmouth #216+8.074%
Tue Dec 22vsAmerican University #188+7.071%
Tue Dec 29atMichigan State #6-21.54%
Mon Jan 04atPrinceton #164conf-1.645%
Fri Jan 08atBrown #184conf-0.548%
Sat Jan 16vsHarvard #123conf+1.254%
Mon Jan 18vsDartmouth #290conf+7.873%
Sat Jan 23atYale #95conf-6.231%
Fri Jan 29vsCornell #109conf+0.552%
Sat Jan 30vsColumbia #169conf+3.461%
Sat Feb 06vsPrinceton #164conf+3.060%
Fri Feb 12atCornell #109conf-3.838%
Sat Feb 13atColumbia #169conf-1.545%
Sat Feb 20vsYale #95conf-1.047%
Fri Feb 26atHarvard #123conf-2.343%
Sat Feb 27atDartmouth #290conf+2.759%
Fri Mar 05vsBrown #184conf+3.862%

Projected margin is from Pennsylvania's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.