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Gardner-Webb
Gardner-Webb returns 53% of last season's minutes and rates #352 on offense and #362 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -22.0 to -7.5.
Why we have them here
Gardner-Webb's preseason projection of -14.7 (No. 361 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -8.4, less than the -7.5 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 364 at the end of 2025-26) adds -4.2, less than its neighbours' -3.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.4. It returns 53% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (81%). The projection leans most on Cameron Gales (-0.3), Paul Lindberg (-0.3) and Isaiah Hicks (-0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Sam Nosakhare, a transfer from Quinnipiac, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -22.0 to -7.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 48% · Transfer 11% · Other newcomer 40%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3637 | Sam Nosakhare | F | 6-9 | 1 | Transfer | Quinnipiac | 6 | -2.4 | -0.4 |
| 3989 | Mikhali Pocknett | F | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | Buffalo | 10 | -2.3 | -0.5 |
| 4045 | Paul Lindberg | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Gardner-Webb | 2 | -4.7 | -0.3 |
| 4046 | Isaiah Hicks | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Gardner-Webb | 2 | -4.7 | -0.3 |
| 4123 | Cameron Gales | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Gardner-Webb | 2 | -5.2 | -0.3 |
| 4200 | Jacob Hudson | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Gardner-Webb | 20 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
| 4201 | NaVuan Peterson | F | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Gardner-Webb | 12 | -2.3 | -0.7 |
| 4241 | Jackson Skipper | F | 6-7 | 3 | Transfer | Vermont | 6 | -3.2 | -0.5 |
| 4547 | Ashton King | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -3.3 | -0.7 | |
| 4624 | Chinedu Okpara | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -3.5 | -0.8 | ||
| 4624 | Rue Wells | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -3.5 | -0.8 | ||
| 4624 | DJ Daniel | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -3.5 | -0.8 | ||
| 4624 | David Gaymon | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -3.5 | -0.8 | ||
| 4624 | Brave Rutsindura | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -3.5 | -0.8 | ||
| 4624 | Bryson Luther | F | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -3.5 | -0.8 | ||
| 4686 | Ahmadou Ndiaye | G | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Gardner-Webb | 3 | -6.7 | -0.4 |
| 4759 | Ace Talbert | G | 6-0 | 3 | Returning | Gardner-Webb | 20 | -2.5 | -1.3 |
| 4780 | Seth Brown | G | 6-5 | 1 | Other newcomer | 9 | -3.7 | -0.9 | |
| 4810 | Ginuwine Tropnas | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -3.8 | -0.9 | |
| 4849 | Spence Sims | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | Gardner-Webb | 18 | -2.9 | -1.3 |
| 5023 | Riek Riek | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Gardner-Webb | 6 | -5.6 | -0.9 |
| 5096 | Jamias Ferere | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Gardner-Webb | 12 | -4.8 | -1.4 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  UConn #4 | -32.0 | <1% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | at |  Texas #20 | -29.8 | <1% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  South Carolina #98 | -20.5 | 5% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  UNC Greensboro #246 | -3.0 | 40% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | at |  VMI #350 | -7.8 | 26% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | at |  Bowling Green #266 | -13.1 | 15% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  North Carolina Central #353 | +3.0 | 60% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Queens University #142 | -6.8 | 29% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Campbell #224 | -3.8 | 38% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | at |  Wake Forest #76 | -22.9 | 3% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | at |  Georgia #32 | -29.2 | <1% | |
| Mon Dec 28 | at |  Kentucky #22 | -30.4 | <1% | |
| Fri Jan 01 | at |  Winthrop #177 | conf | -12.6 | 15% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Charleston Southern #276 | conf | -9.4 | 23% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Presbyterian #243 | conf | -6.0 | 31% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  High Point #40 | conf | -23.9 | 3% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  UNC Asheville #245 | conf | -6.0 | 31% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  Longwood #195 | conf | -11.8 | 17% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  South Carolina Upstate #268 | conf | -9.0 | 23% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs |  Radford #241 | conf | -6.5 | 30% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | Presbyterian #243 | conf | -9.8 | 21% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs | Charleston Southern #276 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Longwood #195 | conf | -8.0 | 26% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | High Point #40 | conf | -18.8 | 6% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Radford #241 | conf | -10.5 | 20% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Winthrop #177 | conf | -8.5 | 25% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | South Carolina Upstate #268 | conf | -5.3 | 33% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | UNC Asheville #245 | conf | -10.1 | 20% |
Projected margin is from Gardner-Webb's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.